000 AXNT20 KNHC 300551 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND GOES-12 SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC...AND METEOSAT-9 SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0500 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... FROM NORTHERN COASTAL LIBERIA...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 18W...TO 2S30W INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 4S41W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 15W AND 23W. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 6N EAST OF 53W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTS THE CURRENT COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N77W TO THE COAST OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W...TO THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N86W. THE SHOWERS THAT WERE ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHWESTERN CUBA EAST OF 85W HAVE DISSIPATED WITH TIME. BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA AROUND A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N92W. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W HAVE DISSIPATED WITH TIME. BROAD CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW ALSO COVERS THE AREA. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS IN LINES OF LOW CLOUD...AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS...ARE EAST OF 68W. THESE CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 70W... AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N31W TO 24N38W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 24N38W TO 18N48W. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND A RIDGE THAT IS IN BETWEEN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC COLD FRONT. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS BETWEEN THE 32N31W 24N38W COLD FRONT AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC COLD FRONT...AROUND A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N58W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N21W TO 25N28W TO 16N35W. $$ MT