000
AXNT20 KNHC 291815
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1405 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 04N08W TO S OF EQUATOR AT 02S26W THEN TO COAST 
OF BRAZIL AT 01S45W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 00N-03N 
E OF 36W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 1N-4N 
BETWEEN 07W-12W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA ALONG THEN TO CENTRAL GUATEMALA MOVING E AT 20 KT.   
FRONT EXPECTED TO BE E OF GULF TONIGHT.  MEANWHILE...SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ALONG AND WITHIN 240 NM E OF FRONT 
N OF 26N WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. FRONT BECOMES 
STATIONARY FROM GUATEMALA TO EXTREME SE MEXICO. BAY OF CAMPECHE 
REMAINS UNDER BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES AND SCATTERED AREAS OF 
PRECIPITATION.  ELSEWHERE...GULF OF MEXICO ENJOYS FAIR SKIES 
WITH 20-25 KT NW WINDS ACROSS MOST OF BASIN. AT THE UPPER 
LEVELS...LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER GULF OF MEXICO 
KEEPS VERY DRY AIR MASS DUE TO CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT AND 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALONG AND W OF TROUGH AXIS.
        
CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD ATLC SURFACE HIGH PRES 1023 MB MAINTAINS LONG FETCH OF 
TRADE WINDS COMING INTO CARIBBEAN.  FRESH TRADEWINDS SHOULD BE 
DIMINISHING AS ATLC RIDGE DRIFT FURTHER E MON AND TUE.  ISOLATED 
LOW CLOUDS OVER MOST OF CARIBBEAN AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORCES 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER ENTIRE BASIN.   ANY DRAINAGE 
OF MOISTURE MOVING N FROM SOUTH AMERICA IS QUICKLY DRIED UP 
INHIBITING CONVECTION. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC FROM 31N33W TO 24N40W BECOME 
DIFFUSING STATIONARY TO 16N55W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
ALONG WITHIN 150 NM OF FRONT N OF 24N AND ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION S OF 24N.  SECOND AND MORE POWERFUL COLD FRONT NOW 
OFF GEORGIA AND N FLORIDA COAST PRODUCING NUMEROUS STRONG 
CONVECTION N OF 29N AND SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
FROM 26N-29N WITHIN 120 NM OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  HIGH PRES 1023 
MB OVER W ATLANTIC AT 29N61W BETWEEN BOTH FRONTS.  

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ATLC 
SUPPORTS COLD FRONT THERE BUT THIS SWATH OF MOISTURE ALONG 
FRONT REMAINS AS ONLY SITE OF ANY CONVECTION AS DRY AREA EVEN 
CURTAILS ITCZ FROM AFFECTING BASIN.  ANTICYCLONE OVER TROPICAL 
ATLC AT 10N17W ALLOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER CANARY ISLANDS.  

$$
WALLY BARNES