000
AXNT20 KNHC 231040
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 2N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR 
NEAR 28W...TO 1S30W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S40W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 4W-9W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
14W-20W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ACROSS THE ERN GULF 
E OF 87W AND IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS USHERED IN ON 15-20 
KT ELY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND SE GULF E 
OF 85W...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE 
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED 
ON A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 
33N77W. MOSTLY ELY WINDS TO 20 KT ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE E GULF 
WHILE SE WINDS TO 20 KT ARE ACROSS THE WRN GULF. OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY 
PROGRESS SE INTO THE W ATLC AND PROVIDE THE WRN AND CENTRAL GULF 
WITH SLY RETURN FLOW AND INCREASED WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT 
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN 
BASIN WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THESE ELY TRADES GENERATING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 16N BETWEEN 67W-80W. THE STRONGEST OF 
THESE TRADES WINDS...UP TO 25 KT...ARE OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST 
OF COLOMBIA. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE TROPICAL WRN ATLC 
IS PROVIDING THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SW UPPER FLOW AS THE TAIL 
END OF A 80 TO 100 KT STREAM JET EXTENDS FROM ERN HONDURAS NE 
ACROSS JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. ELSEWHERE 
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...CONVERGENT NE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS 
INLAND AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF WRN PANAMA AND COSTA 
RICA S OF 11N W OF 80W. SIMILAR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS 
PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND INLAND 
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC AND SUPPORTS A COLD 
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N54W AND EXTENDS 
ALONG 30N56W 25N60W TO 20N63W. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG WITH 
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS 
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N 
OF 22N. TO THE W OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE W ATLC...A 
1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 
33N77W AND IS PROVIDING THE W ATLC WITH NE TO ELY SURFACE FLOW 
USHERING IN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...TURKS AND CAICOS AND THE ERN FLORIDA 
PENINSULA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TO THE E OF THE FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE E/CENTRAL AND E ATLC...A RIDGE OF HIGH 
PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM NORTH OF THE AZORES TO ACROSS THE TROPICAL 
ATLC. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED UNDER MAINLY 15 TO 20 
KT NE TO E FLOW.

$$
HUFFMAN