000 AXNT20 KNHC 221058 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN MAR 22 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 1N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 24W...TO 1S30W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 2N BETWEEN 42W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD DEEP LAYERED UPPER TROUGHING COVERS THE ERN CONUS AND GULF OF MEXICO E OF 92W INTO THE W ATLC WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE OBSERVED MAINLY OVER THE SRN GULF S OF 22N. AS OF 0900 UTC...A UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL GULF AND IS SUPPORTING POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE ERN GULF FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 85W-90W...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THESE SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG NE TO E SURFACE FLOW OVER THE ERN GULF. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE SE CONUS ACROSS THE WRN GULF TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO WHERE OVERALL FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FOUND WITH LIGHT 10-15 KT E-SE SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF W OF 90W. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE ERN CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NE BRAZIL THROUGH 10N60W TO OVER PUERTO RICO. UPPER LEVEL SWLY WINDS ARE ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN AS THEY FEED INTO A 80 TO 100 KT JET STREAM WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE EXTENDING FROM S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 17N73W ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. TYPICAL CONVERGENT NE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND AND WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF WRN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA S OF 12N W OF 80W. SIMILAR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE ALONG 15N70W 13N74W 10N78W IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO ERN HISPANIOLA AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND...THE MONA PASSAGE AND PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING ADJACENT COASTAL CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS WITHIN 50 NM. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING IS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE WRN ATLC W OF 60W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N58W AND EXTENDS SW INTO A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N64W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE LOW S ALONG 24N65W TO 19N69W. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGHING IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 28N61W SWD TO 20N64W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH N OF 23N. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE ERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 20N55W THEN CONTINUES NE TO BEYOND 32N45W. A JET STREAM WITH WINDS OF 80 TO 100 KT EXTENDS WITHIN 200 NM OF A LINE FROM THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF HISPANIOLA TO 21N50W. A SECOND DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N BETWEEN 25W-40W WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 31N34W SW TO 25N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE E ATLC AND TROPICAL ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA WITH FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS OBSERVED UNDER 10-20 KT NE TO ELY FLOW. $$ HUFFMAN