000
AXNT20 KNHC 021155
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON MAR 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

FROM LIBERIA NEAR 7N9W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 21W...TO 4S30W...AND 
INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 7S41W. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED 
MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM OFF AFRICA COAST BETWEEN
3W AND 12W...AND SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 16W AND 44W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH NOW IS SPINNING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TO 
SOUTH FLORIDA...THE BAHAMAS AND WESTERN CUBA INTO THE 
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW ALSO COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W. THIS TROUGH IS POWERING THE COLD 
FRONT THAT CURRENTLY IS MOVING ALONG A LINE FROM THE ATLANTIC 
OCEAN THROUGH 32N74W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W TO CENTRAL CUBA
TO NORTHERN COASTAL HONDURAS JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS
INTO SOUTHERN GUATEMALA. THE FRONT BREAKS UP ACROSS THE ISTHMUS 
OF TEHUANTEPEC. STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC...AND GALE-FORCE WINDS HAVE DIED DOWN IN THE 
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A DISSIPATING 
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES IN INTERIOR MEXICO FROM THE ISTHMUS 
NORTHWESTWARD TO 29N108W. SHOWERS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EXTEND 
FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF CUBA...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 
BAHAMAS...BEYOND 32N71W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF 
THE AREA...NORTHWEST OF JAMAICA...FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO DEEP 
LAYER TROUGH. THIS FLOW RUNS INTO A SEPARATE AREA OF LARGE SCALE 
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT STARTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN 
CORNER OF THE AREA. BROAD LARGE SCALE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD MOVES UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. SHOWERS 
IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS COVER PARTS OF COLOMBIA FROM ITS SOUTHERN 
COAST OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD 10N74W...
IN POSSIBLY BROAD WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE TROUGH THAT CURRENTLY IS 
MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TO SOUTH FLORIDA...THE BAHAMAS AND 
WESTERN CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALSO COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W. SHOWERS EXTEND FROM THE 
SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF CUBA...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...BEYOND 
32N71W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N21W SUPPORTS 
IN SOME WAY THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT STRADDLES 30N 
BETWEEN 16W AND THE 1020 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N44W.
A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 24N46W.
A SEPARATE SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST TO THE WEST ALONG 27N51W TO 
23N55W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ORIGINATES IN THE 
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND CURVES ACROSS
THE GREATER ANTILLES NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND 25N40W. A SECOND DEEP
LAYER TROUGH ALSO IS SUPPORTING THE STATIONARY FRONT/SURFACE 
TROUGH FEATURE...THROUGH 32N45W TO 26N48W TO 22N63W. SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 30W AND 45W. BROAD SURFACE 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY 
FRONT BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 1020 MB LOW CENTER AND TROUGH.

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MT