000 AXNT20 KNHC 241140 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N21W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 28W EXTENDING TO 1S34W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 2N BETWEEN 10W-13W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 3N BETWEEN 17W-28W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 2N BETWEEN 34W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF REGION...WHERE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING ATMOSPHERIC SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS ALSO PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF REGION. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE N GULF. THE SUBSIDENCE IS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NW GULF...WITH A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER E MEXICO NEAR 23N99W. ACROSS THE E GULF...NE TO E SURFACE WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE W NORTH ATLC AND NW CARIBBEAN ARE USHERING IN A RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG N TO NE SURFACE WINDS ARE BLOWING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC RESULTING IN GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE AT 25/0000 UTC. CARIBBEAN SEA... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN THAT EXTENDS FROM 22N82W TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N80W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THIS FRONT. ALSO...AN INCREASED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RESULTING IN STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WITH NE TO E SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN REGION...WHERE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRESENT TO THE SE OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC AND NW CARIBBEAN. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO BE ADVECTED WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BY THE TRADE WINDS...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THESE PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF THESE SHOWERS IS S OF 15N E OF 65W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N80W TO 27N68W TO 32N60W TO NE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE THIS FRONT. ACROSS LOCATIONS IN THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC THAT ARE SE OF THIS FRONT...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS PRESENT OVER THE E ATLC N OF 21N BETWEEN 16W-32W WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 27N31W TO 29N26W TO 32N24W TO N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY ARE SUPPORTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG AND WITHIN 90 NM E OF THIS COLD FRONT. A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 36N27W IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC. THIS SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY AND BE LOCATED NEAR 26N26W AS A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW AT 25/0600 UTC. FARTHER TO THE E... UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WIND SPEED MAXIMUM IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 25N E OF 19W. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 26N14W TO A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 31N15W TO 32N15W TO N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER RIDGE IS S OF 11N E OF 52W. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. THIS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ALSO SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 4N BETWEEN 44W-51W. $$ COHEN