000 AXNT20 KNHC 151749 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N6W 1N20W 2N30W 1N40W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 43W...AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM SOUTH OF AXIS BETWEEN 3W AND 7W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80-100 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 23W AND 43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NEAR 28N87W WHERE IT BECOMES A WARM FRONT. A WEAK 1014 MB LOW HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 28N92W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW ENTERING NE MEXICO MIDWAY BETWEEN MATAMOROS AND CIUDAD VICTORIA. A QSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 1200 UTC DENOTES THE PRESENCE OF SFC LOW WITH SOME CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE WIND FIELD. AN UPPER-LEVEL VORT MAX DIGGING E-SE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW... FORECAST TO MOVE ENE TOWARDS NRN FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND INTO THE W ATLC MON MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF REACHING SOUTH FLORIDA MONDAY MORNING. NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WILL INVADE THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR FROM THE SE U.S. REVEALS A BAND OF MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW. THIS ACTIVITY IS AFFECTING MAINLY THE AREA N OF 28N AND EAST OF 92W. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BANKING UP AGAINST THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS PARTICULARLY N OF TAMPICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE ANCHORED ON A HIGH OVER EPAC REGION COVERS MEXICO AND MUCH OF THE GULF. A STRONG 130-150 KT UPPER LEVEL JET IS INLAND OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES. 90-110 KT UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N. CARIBBEAN SEA... MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS...AS USUAL...JUST OFFSHORE THE COLOMBIA COAST. THESE WINDS ARE USHERING IN PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS...MORE CONCENTRATED IN A BAND THAT EXTENDS FROM THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS TO NEAR NOAA BUOY 42058. THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MOVING WWD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM PUERTO RICO TO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N78W. THESE TWO UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES ARE PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND THE ASSOCIATED DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. THE GFS COMPUTER MODEL SUGGEST THAT THE AREA OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 54W WILL AFFECT THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON MON INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THOSE ISLANDS. THE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH MON AS HIGH PRES N OF AREA SHIFTS E. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND N-CENTRAL FLORIDA GENERATING A 120 NM WIDE BAND OF MULTI- LAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS. AN EARLIER QSCAT PASS INDICATED THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WITH STRONG SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 29N. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO MOVE ENE TOWARDS THE W ATLC IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. ACCORDING TO THE COMPUTER MODELS...THIS LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN TO GALE CENTER JUST S OF BERMUDA LATE MON. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N67W EXTENDING A RIDGE TOWARDS THE SE BAHAMAS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N38W THEN CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 26N48W. AT THIS POINT...IT BECOMES STATIONARY CONTINUING MANLY WWD TO NEAR 24N61W. A NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IS RELATED TO THE FRONT. FURTHER EAST...THERE IS A 1022 MB SFC HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N32W. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND IS PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC. A SFC TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 54W SOUTH OF 13N TO THE SURINAME/GUYANA BORDER. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM EAST OF THE TAIL END OF THE TROUGH AXIS AFFECTING PARTS OF FRENCH GUIANA AND AMAPA IN BRAZIL. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE GUYANAS AND NE VENEZUELA THE REST OF TODAY SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS EARLY MONDAY. STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED OVER THE N SECTION OF THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A JET-STREAM WHICH ALSO CROSSES THE N GULF STATES. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS EAST OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 20N21W. A JET-STREAM BRANCH WITH CORE WINDS OF 70-90 KT CROSSES THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ENTERING WEST AFRICA THROUGH MAURITANIA. $$ GR