000
AXNT20 KNHC 071158
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT FEB 07 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 6N9W IN LIBERIA TO 1N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 
22W...PARALLELING THE EQUATOR FROM 23W TO 32W...AND THEN MOVING
INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S46W. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED 
SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND THE 
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL/FRENCH GUIANA COASTAL BORDER ALONG 
51W/52W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IN
NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE DEEP 
LAYER TROUGH THAT GUIDES THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT 
HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA COMPLETELY. ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DIGGING TOWARD THE NORTHERN YUCATAN 
PENINSULA. A SECOND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH 
APPEARS TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SLOWLY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
20N64W TO PUERTO RICO TO 17N68W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 17N68W 
TO 15N75W TO 11N81W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MOVE INTO 
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...
WHILE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS COVER THE REST OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA. A COMPLETELY SEPARATE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
67W FROM 12N TO 16N. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL 
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 66W
AND 71W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A TROUGH COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 
50W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT STRONG COLD FRONT THAT 
PASSES THROUGH 32N49W TO 25N56W TO 20N64W TO PUERTO RICO.
SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 49W AND 60W. A DEEP LAYER 
TROUGH IS INLAND FROM MOROCCO TO THE WESTERN SAHARA. THE COLD 
FRONT THAT WAS SUPPORTED BY THIS TROUGH NOW IS WELL INLAND IN 
AFRICA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 22N30W 20N31W 
14N44W 2N44W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE AREA ALONG 
15N49W 25N40W BEYOND 36N32W. BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS 
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AROUND A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 
32N32W...TO THE EAST OF THE 32N49W 20N64W COLD FRONT 

$$
MT