000
AXNT20 KNHC 062322
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI FEB 06 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N16W 1N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR 
NEAR 40W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG 1036 MB SFC HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO SLIDE E NOW CENTERED 
NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. THIS POSITION HAS ALLOWED THE 
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE UNIFORM E TO SE ACROSS THE AREA 
WHICH HAS MODIFIED THE COOL AIRMASS THAT WAS IN PLACE EARLIER 
THIS WEEK. SFC OBS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS THE STRONGEST 
WINDS OVER THE S HALF OF THE GULF...WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
IS TIGHTENED DUE TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SE OF THE AREA. STRONG 
RETURN FLOW EXISTS OVER THE NW GULF IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRES OVER 
THE UPPER PLAINS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY 
OCCURRING IN THE AREAS OF STRONG FLOW MENTIONED...ESPECIALLY IN 
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH 
TOMORROW. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NEARLY STATIONARY 
FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 19N68W 15N73W 
12N78W. PATCHY LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE 
SCATTERED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BUT MOST ORGANIZED WITHIN 90 NM W 
OF THE OLD FRONT. SIMILAR MOISTURE IS OBSERVED WITHIN 240 NM OF  
A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 66W MOVING WITHIN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. 
WHILE GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE COME TO AN END NEAR THE COASTS OF 
NICARAGUA AND COLOMBIA...WINDS TO 30 KT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH ACROSS THE NW ATLC OFF THE COAST OF 
NEWFOUNDLAND IS PROVIDING SOME SUPPORT TO A COLD FRONT THAT 
ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N53W TURNING STATIONARY NEAR 
30N55W AND EXTENDING SW TO THE MONA PASSAGE. LOW-LEVEL 
CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE 
BOUNDARY...WHILE SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE IS FOUND N OF THE AREA 
IN AN UPPER DIFFLUENT AREA.  E OF THE FRONT...DEEP LAYER  
RIDGING LIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED 
1030 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N36W. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 
ELONGATED TROUGH LIES SE OF THE RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE E ATLC. 
THIS FEATURE IS PROMOTING AN UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN WITH A SW 
UPPER JET ORIGINATING E OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND EXTENDING 
NE ACROSS WRN AFRICA...DRIVING MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS 
WITH POCKETS OF DEEPER MOISTURE S OF 18N E OF 36W.

$$
CANGIALOSI