000
AXNT20 KNHC 051124
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU FEB 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 1N20W 1N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR 
NEAR 41W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 5N-7N E OF 
13W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-4N BETWEEN 19W-27W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE EXTREME TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT CLIPS THE SW GULF FROM THE 
NW TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NEAR 22N91W. A MUCH COOLER 
AND DRIER AIR MASS HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF 
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS LIMITING CLOUD 
COVER TO COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS IN THE E GULF. AT THE SFC...HIGH 
PRESSURE OVER MISSISSIPPI EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE 
REGION. EXPECT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO STRENGTHEN AS THE HIGH 
PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT LIES ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. AS OF 0900 UTC...THE 
FRONT CROSSES OVER CUBA AND ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 21N78W THEN 
CONTINUES ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...MOVING INLAND OVER THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N88W. NO PRECIPITATION IS NOTED WITH 
THIS FRONT...HOWEVER STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE NW CARIBBEAN 
AROUND THE FRONT. NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30 KT ARE BEHIND THE FRONT. 
A SFC TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS HAITI ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 
18N74W AND STRETCHES SW TO NEAR 11N79W. GALE FORCE WINDS 
CONTINUE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-15N W OF 82W ALONG THE 
COAST OF NICARAGUA AND BETWEEN 75W-76W S OF 12N ALONG THE 
COLOMBIAN COAST. ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN...FRESH TO STRONG 
TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO USHER IN ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS. 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS PREVENTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP 
CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN 
IN THE W ATLC. THE PRIMARY FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 
31N59W AND CONTINUES INTO THE CARIBBEAN CROSSING HISPANIOLA NEAR 
20N70W. MULTI-LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 40 
NM OF THIS BOUNDARY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION 
NEAR 31N65W AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND OVER CUBA NEAR 
22N77W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OBSERVED N OF 29N WITHIN 300 NM W 
OF THIS FRONT. THE CENTRAL AND EAST ATLC ARE COVERED BY A 
LARGE SFC RIDGE CENTERED AROUND A 1033 MB SFC HIGH NEAR 33N40W.

$$
WADDINGTON