000
AXNT20 KNHC 030514
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON FEB 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 5N5W 3N15W 2N24W CROSSING THE EQUATOR 
NEAR 32W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
23W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS BETWEEN THE 
AXIS AND THE EQUATOR W OF 41W AND INLAND OVER BRAZIL.
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF 
THE GULF. AS OF 0300 UTC...THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM A LOW IN THE W 
ATLC...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG THE NW COAST OF CUBA AND 
ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO MEXICO. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED ON DOPPLER RADAR IN THE STRAIGHTS OF 
FLORIDA AND OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. A SECOND...AND WEAKER...COLD 
FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA AND ENTERS THE GULF NEAR TAMPA BAY 
THEN CONTINUES ALONG 25N86W TO NEAR 22N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE BOUNDARY. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT IN 
THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE SOUTH OF 21N AND W OF 93W. STRONG WINDS 
IN THE WEST GULF WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TODAY AS THE FRONTAL 
SYSTEMS MOVE SE OUT OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE 
NW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO THE YUCATAN 
CHANNEL AND OVER CUBA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT...AS OF 0300 
UTC...WAS POSITIONED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. EXPECT NORTHERLY 
WINDS TO INCREASE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AS THIS FRONT MAKES ITS 
WAY INTO THE BASIN. PATCHY LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE REMAINDER 
OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT. 
STRONG TRADE WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE BASIN BETWEEN A HIGH OVER 
THE ATLC AND A LOW OVER COLOMBIA. THE STRONGEST WINDS...TO 30 
KT...ARE OBSERVED ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A 1005 MB SFC LOW IS CENTERED IN THE W ATLC 
NEAR 29N79W. A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER 
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE SE GULF. NUMEROUS SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ARE 
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE BAHAMAS. GALE FORCE 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 
27N DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MULTI-LEVEL CLOUDS AND 
POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS SURROUND A SFC THROUGH...REMNANTS OF 
A COLD FRONT...THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 30N34W AND EXTENDS 
ALONG 26N45W TO 26N55W. OTHERWISE...A SFC RIDGE ANCHORED ON A 
1032 MB HIGH NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA DOMINATES THE 
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC.


$$
WADDINGTON