000
AXNT20 KNHC 022346
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON FEB 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 8N9W 3N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 
33W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 15W-30W. NUMEROUS STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NEAR THE NE BRAZIL COAST FROM 5S TO THE EQUATOR 
BETWEEN 40W-46W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO 
EXTENDS SW FROM NEAR FT WALTON BEACH FL ACROSS THE WRN GULF AND 
ENTERS MEXICO S OF TAMPICO. THE FRONT IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A 
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. NORTHERLY GALE
FORCE WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KTS ARE CURRENTLY ANALYZED N OF THE 
FRONT TO 23N W OF 93W. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR 
THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS 
ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE COASTAL SE U.S. AND 
WRN GULF. E OF THE FRONT...A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 
27N84W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW EASTWARD ACROSS 
CENTRAL FL FROM TAMPA TO NEAR MELBOURNE. ALSO A SURFACE TROUGH 
EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE ERN GULF AND THEN EXTENDS W 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TO NEAR 23N92W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH 
LOW-LEVEL SURFACE CONVERGENCE ARE AIDING IN SUPPORTING A 
DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE FROM NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE FLORIDA THROUGH 
THE DRY TORTUGAS TO COZUMEL MEXICO. THE PRESENCE OF THE SQUALL 
LINE WAS SUPPORTED BY RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA. THIS SQUALL LINE 
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA AND NW CUBA OVER THE 
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS...THE SFC LOW WILL 
CONTINUE TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND WILL ENTER 
THE W ATLANTIC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE NW 
CARIBBEAN SEA WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NRN 
COLOMBIA NE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. MODERATE 
TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR DOMINATES THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AT THE SURFACE...A RELATIVELY TIGHT 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A WRN ATLC HIGH AND A 1009 MB 
COLOMBIAN LOW IS GENERATING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE 
BASIN. LOW-LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE OF THESE TRADES ARE PRODUCING 
POSSIBLE SHOWERS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 13N E OF 67W AND 
ALSO ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN WITHIN 90 NM OF THE PANAMA AND 
COSTA RICA COASTLINES. THE SQUALL LINE MENTIONED IN THE GULF
SECTION IS ENTERING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AS OF 2100 UTC...AND IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH FURTHER INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 
SEVERAL HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD
OVER THE ERN CONUS WAS NOTED ACROSS THE WRN ATLC W OF 70W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE INDICATED OVER MUCH OF 
FLORIDA AND INTO THE W ATLC WATERS N OF 25N AND W OF 80W AS A 
RESULT. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SQUALL LINE IS 
EXPECTED TO CROSS S FLORIDA AND ENTER THE EXTREME SW PORTION OF 
THE ATLANTIC NEAR THE WRN BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALSO 
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE ERN 
GULF IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE FAR W 
ATLC OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH LOCATED WELL N 
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE N-CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD 
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N35W AND EXTENDS SW TO 28N45W 
AND THEN CONTINUES AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH 
22N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT 
AND 120 NM BEHIND THE FRONT. A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED 
N OF THE AREA NEAR 35N53W. A RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND W CUBA. RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER 
CHARACTERIZED BY VERY DRY AIR ALOFT IS NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER 
OF THE ATLANTIC WITH A WEAK DISSIPATING 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH 
CENTERED NEAR 26N40W. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS 
FROM THE NE CARIBBEAN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 21N50W TO 
NEAR 22N30W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 12N45W IS 
UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE AXIS NOTED ABOVE. 

$$
WALTON/COBB