000
AXNT20 KNHC 012345
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN FEB 01 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 3N20W 1N30W CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR AT 39W AND EXTENDING INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S46W. A 
CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR 2N20W. 
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND OVER SW AFRICA AND NE BRAZIL.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 40W AND 
46W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SOUTHERLY SURFACE RETURN FLOW IS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO W OF 
85W ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 
CENTERED NEAR 32N68W AT 2100 UTC. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS 
ACROSS THE SRN GULF TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN. AN AREA 
OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN 
GULF WATERS NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST. ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS IS 
NOTED OVER THE GULF REGION. ALOFT...STRONG WESTERLY FLOW  
DOMINATES THE ENTIRE AREA. THESE WINDS ARE REACHING 90 TO 110 KT 
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS AND ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A 
SUBTROPICAL JET-STREAM. EARLY THIS WEEK...WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS A LOW PRES AREA DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN 
GULF BY EARLY MON. THE GFS COMPUTER MODEL SHOWS A WEAK SFC LOW 
MOVING EWD TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE W ATLC. STRONG 
WINDS...LIKELY WITH GALE FORCE...WILL FOLLOW THE ASSOCIATED COLD 
FRONT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE 
GULF. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR THE SE GULF BY MON NIGHT. 
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTH 
FLORIDA THIS MONDAY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS WEATHER PATTERN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW 10 DEGREES CELSIUS/50 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT 
WERE REPORTED IN PARTS OF WEST AND CENTRAL CUBA EARLY THIS 
MORNING WITH THE LOWEST TEMPERATURE OF 5.8 C 0R ABOUT 43 F IN 
TAPASTE HAVANA. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THIS WINTER 
WEATHER IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AS A 
STATIONARY FRONT...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS 
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN SOME LOCALES OF 
THAT ISLAND.  A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE W-CENTRAL ATLC 
SUPPORTS THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM ACROSS 
CENTRAL HISPANIOLA TO NEAR CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NICARAGUA. THE 
FRONT IS ALSO GENERATING SOME CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS 
OVER JAMAICA. 15-20 KT N-NE WINDS ARE OBSERVED NEAR THE FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY. TRADE WINDS ARE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE BASIN DUE 
TO A SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF THE AREA. THIS HIGH IS SHIFTING 
EWD ACROSS THE W ATLC. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE TRADES ARE 
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 
SHOWERS ARE MORE CONCENTRATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE ABC ISLANDS 
AND OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 14N. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT 
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD RIDGE OVER NRN SOUTH AMERICA IS 
ENHANCING THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY. ELSEWHERE IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF A LINE FROM 
GUADELOUPE TO THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA. LOOKING AHEAD...A STRONG 
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT AND EXTEND FROM 
CENTRAL CUBA TO GULF OF HONDURAS BY LATE TUE.
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE W-CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD 
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 31N49W EXTENDING SW 
TO 22N60W AND ACROSS HISPANIOLA THEN INTO THE WRN CARIBBEAN. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 70 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. 
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH IS SITUATED 
NEAR 32N68W WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS 
THE BAHAMAS AND W ATLC. NE WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF 
THIS HIGH ARE TRANSPORTING A PATCH OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE 
BAHAMAS INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF CUBA. RELATIVELY TRANQUIL 
WEATHER IS NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC WITH A 1023 
MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N36W. A SFC TROUGH...REMNANTS OF A COLD 
FRONT CROSSES THE CANARY ISLANDS THEN CONTINUES W AND NW TO NEAR 
30N29W. MAINLY LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS 
THE CANARY AND MADEIRA ISLANDS. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS 
CENTERED NEAR 26N45W IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN ELONGATED AND 
NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SE WITH AXIS ALONG THE WRN 
COAST OF AFRICA TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 15N38W TO 12N43W.

$$
GR