000 AXNT20 KNHC 240547 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 3N AND THE EQUATOR TO 2N16W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 30W AND INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 8W-15W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BRAZIL COAST BETWEEN 40W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF REGION. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE GULF THIS EVENING WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ESTABLISHED OVER THE WRN HALF AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE NW GULF COAST LATE SAT MORNING. THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO SAT NIGHT THEN WEAKEN AND LIFT N OF THE AREA SUN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WEAK RIDGING IS OVER THE ERN GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN AND WEAK TROUGHING RESIDES ACROSS THE WRN GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING TRANSPORTED BY SWLY WINDS FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS N-CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE N GULF WATERS. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE W ATLC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS ERN HISPANIOLA AND THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES AS A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 18N69W TO NRN COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO GENERATE ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE ADJACENT COAST CARIBBEAN WATERS. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER BELIZE AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND IS GENERATING OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 83W-91W. HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NE VENEZUELA TO THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC. ANOTHER 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 30N30W AND DOMINATES THE EAST AND CENTRAL ATLC E OF 55W PRODUCING A WIDESPREAD AREA OF GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 25 KT. IN BETWEEN...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ACROSS THE W ATLC AND SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT WHICH ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N52W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. ALOFT...A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW REMAINS CENTERED NEAR 15N51W AND IS ADVECTING MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE NWD FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 45W-51W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING TO BE USHERED IN ON WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHES FROM 10N40W NWD TO 22N39W AND THEN NE TO THE MADEIRA/CANARY ISLANDS. SE OF THE RIDGE...THERE IS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SPINNING NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AROUND 18N21W. $$ HUFFMAN