000
AXNT20 KNHC 231755
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM 4N1W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 23W TO 
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 10W-14W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
1N-4N BETWEEN 17W-21W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
1S-2N BETWEEN 30W-33W...FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 45W-46W...AND FROM 
2N-4N BETWEEN 50W-52W.   
 
...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 29N81W WITH 
FAIR WEATHER. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W TO LOUISIANA AND E TEXAS. 
MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW PRODUCING 
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER 
THE THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE IS OVER THE NW GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT...A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE 
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO CENTRAL TEXAS IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS AS 
THE SURFACE HIGH OVER FLORIDA MOVES SE TO THE BAHAMAS.    

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE COAST OF N HONDURAS ALONG 17N88W 
16N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. 
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM E 
HISPANIOLA TO NE COLOMBIA PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY 
OVER E HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO BELIZE. MODERATE TO FRESH 
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM N VENEZUELA TO 
BEYOND PUERTO RICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. 
EXPECT...THE TROUGH N OF HONDURAS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS WHILE THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO HAVE 
SHOWERS.   

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N51W TO NE 
HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF 
THE FRONT. A 1032 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N30W. 
AREA OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 10N-30N 
BETWEEN 25W-50W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W 
ATLANTIC N OF 25N BETWEEN 70W-80W. A RIDGE IS FURTHER E BETWEEN 
60W-70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 15N53W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E 
ATLANTIC NEAR 26N34W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT 17N22W. EXPECT...THE FRONT OVER THE 
ATLANTIC TO BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH 
SHOWERS.  

$$
FORMOSA