000 AXNT20 KNHC 162348 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N13W 3N20W 2N30W 1N40W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 13W-20W...AND FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 30W-41W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NEAR 3N25W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A 1040 MB HIGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA. THIS SYSTEM IS MAINTAINING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF REGION DUE TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. A BAND OF TRANSVERSE HIGH CLOUDS IS ALSO SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SWLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WHICH DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF. A 110-130 KT JETSTREAM CROSSES THE N GULF WATERS AND THE SE CONUS THEN CONTINUES INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY E AND WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH SAT WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE N GULF WATERS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE GULF ON SUN. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MEANDERING FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO GENERATE ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE FRONT FROM THE ATLC ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH CENTRAL CUBA THEN CONTINUES SW TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W. AS WAS PREDICTED BY THE COMPUTER MODELS...A SFC TROUGH HAS ENTERED THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS TO ISLA DE MARGARITA VENEZUELA. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS SHOWING SOME CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALTHOUGH IS VOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH ARE ALREADY REACHING THE NE SECTOR OF PUERTO RICO AS SEEN ON THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR. OTHER SHOWERS ARE OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND SAT...AND MAY REACH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON SUN KEEPING THE ENVIRONMENT HUMID AND UNSTABLE WITH THE RISK OF MORE SHOWERS. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 75W ON MON. MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE BASIN WHILE NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE NOTED BEHIND THE ABOVE MENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT. ALOFT...A RIDGE ANCHORED BY A HIGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N70W DOMINATES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER-LOW SPINNING OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 16N55W CLIPS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE FAR E CARIBBEAN. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 32N60W THEN CONTINUES SW CROSSING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. A BAND OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS RELATED TO THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SFC RIDGE ANCHORED ON A 1033 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 32N34W. A SWATH OF MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT IS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE AFFECTING THE TROPICS. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. ALOFT...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH SITUATED NEAR 28N44W. SOUTH OF THE RIDGE...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW. STRONG NLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OF 110-130 KT ARE OVER THE MADEIRA/CANARY ISLANDS BEHIND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WHICH STRETCHES FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER N MOROCCO TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS UPPER FEATURE CONTINUES MAINLY WWD ACROSS THE OCEAN TO THE UPPER LOW LOCATED E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR IS ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. $$ GR