000
AXNT20 KNHC 151711
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU JAN 15 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W TO 1N24W TO 
1N32W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 38W...INTO NORTHEASTERN 
BRAZIL NEAR 3S46W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
FROM 1N TO 4N BETWEEN 1W AND 15W...SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 17W AND 
24W...AND FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 28W AND 35W

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. FAIR 
WEATHER IS OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO N OF 27N WHILE BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE S OF 27N. 10-15 KT NE SURFACE 
FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS ARE 
BEING EXPERIENCED HOWEVER IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE 
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 
50'S OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES AND IN THE UPPER 60'S OVER S 
FLORIDA AND S TEXAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW 
WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. A 
110-130 KT JETSTREAM IS OVER THE NE GULF STATES AND CONTINUES 
OVER THE TO THE S ATLANTIC STATES. EXPECT...CONTINUED SHOWERS 
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS DUE TO A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BELIZE ALONG 
22N80W 16N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. 
A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG 
TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. AREAS OF 
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE W CARIBBEAN 
AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER 
RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM N 
COLOMBIA TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 84W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS 
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 84W. EXPECT...THE FRONT 
TO REMAIN STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.  

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM BERMUDA TO 
CENTRAL CUBA ALONG 32N65W 23N79W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW 
CLOUDS WITH 20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. A 1032 MB 
HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N32W. MOSTLY FAIR 
WEATHER IS N OF 20N BETWEEN W AFRICA TO 60W. IN THE TROPICS A 
SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 20N52W 10N57W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 14N-17N 
BETWEEN 50W-52W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W 
ATLANTIC W OF 55W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE TROPICAL 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 13N50W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER 
THE E ATLANTIC AND W AFRICA W OF 40W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN 
ATLANTIC FROM THE EQ-22N E OF 50W.    

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FORMOSA