000
AXNT20 KNHC 052345
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON JAN 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W 3N35W 3N45W 1N50W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 40W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK 1015 MB SFC LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N96N WITH A COLD FRONT 
EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE FAR W GULF ENTERING MEXICO NEAR 22N98W. 
A STATIONARY FRONT ALSO EXTENDS TO THE NE OF THE LOW TO CENTRAL 
LOUISIANA. CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BEHIND THE 
FRONT AS INDICATED BY VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY. LIGHT WINDS AND 
FAIR WEATHER REMAIN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REGION DUE 
TO A SFC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT 
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT TO FOLLOW THE FRONT AS 
IT DRIFTS TO THE SE THROUGH TUE AND THEN MOVES MORE RAPIDLY 
ACROSS THE REGION REACHING S FLORIDA ON WED AND THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA LATE WED. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN 
EXTENDING NW FROM AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 14N82W...CLOSE TO THE NE 
COAST OF NICARAGUA. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E 
CARIBBEAN. THIS PATTERN IS CREATING WIDESPREAD DRY STABLE AIR AS 
INDICATED FROM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL 
INSTABILITY IS PRODUCING PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED 
LIGHT SHOWERS MOSTLY IN THE SE CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS THE WINDWARD 
ISLANDS. A WEAK SFC TROUGH IS ALONG 75W. OTHERWISE LITTLE 
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A 
WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL 
ON THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MID-UPPER PATTERN IS NEARLY WLY AND QUITE STRONG ACROSS THE 
ATLC BASIN...WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS 
AND RIDGES. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE N OF 
20N BETWEEN 45W AND 65W...MAINLY AHEAD OF AN UPPER SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH WHICH LIES ALONG 59W/60W. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW- 
LEVEL TROUGH LIES IN THE W ATLC AND THE SE BAHAMAS WITH AXIS 
ALONG 74W. ANOTHER LOW-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N44W TO 
23N55W ENHANCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY. 
OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRES COVERS THE FORECAST AREA ANCHORED BY A 
1028 MB CENTER NEAR 32N26W AND A 1021 MB CENTER NEAR 29N63W. A 
SIMILAR HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS.

$$
CW/MH