000
AXNT20 KNHC 050606
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON JAN 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

8N10W 2N30W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 51W IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
3N TO 6N BETWEEN 13W AND 17W...AND FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN
51W AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT HUGS THE COASTAL WATERS/COASTAL PLAINS FROM 
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TO 27N ALONG THE TEXAS COAST...CURVING 
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY OF TEXAS BEYOND THE TEXAS 
BIG BEND. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 18N74W 14N77W 10N76W. SHOWERS ARE 
POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE EVERYWHERE.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 40W...
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT/STATIONARY
FRONT WHOSE SOUTHERNMOST POINTS ARE JUST SOUTH OF BERMUDA BETWEEN
60W AND 70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N47W 29N50W 25N56W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 72W/73W FROM 22N TO 27N. AREAS OF
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS
ARE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 37W AND 78W.

$$
MT