000 AXNT20 KNHC 032341 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SAT JAN 03 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 4N23W 4N40W 3N52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 5W-16W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF REGION...WITH MID/UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE N GULF. A 100-KT UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM IS CENTERED OVER THE NRN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS COMBINING WITH MOISTURE ACROSS THE N GULF TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 84W-93W. AT THE SAME TIME...RETURN FLOW AROUND A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IN THE W ATLC NEAR 28N73W IS BRINGING SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE GULF REGION. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SW GULF IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE S GULF. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF LATE SUNDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... SW TO W UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH IN NRN GUYANA NEAR 6N59W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WNW ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER RIDGE AND IS RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE W AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. GREATER MID/UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN AND SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 63W-70W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ATLANTIC... ACROSS THE W ATLC...STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT IN THE BASE OF UPPER TROUGHING WITH DEEP CONVECTION BEING INHIBITED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR...AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 28N73W. FARTHER TO THE E...A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO 25N60W TO 31N41W...AND AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT BEYOND 31N41W TO THE NE. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THESE FRONTS. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE N OF 20N BETWEEN 35W-50W AND A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO 16N50W FROM A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N25W IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE E ATLC. ACROSS THE FAR ERN ATLC...AN UPPER TROUGH IS N OF 21N AND E OF 26W...THOUGH DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THIS FEATURE. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC... GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED...WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. $$ HUFFMAN