000
AXNT20 KNHC 271706
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1615 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 3N20W TO 1N30W...TO JUST NORTH OF
THE EQUATOR ALONG 40W...TO THE EQUATOR AT 47W...AND ALONG THE
EQUATOR AT 52W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N
TO 5N BETWEEN 8W AND 11W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N BETWEEN 14W AND
45W. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N TO 4N 
BETWEEN 50W AND 52W IN EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER
ALONG 8N TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST OF HONDURAS...THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...BEYOND
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS
TEXAS AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WEST
OF 94W IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING INTO 
CENTRAL TEXAS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE 
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF 94W...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN A LINE OF CLOUDS FORMED BY CONFLUENT 
SURFACE WIND FLOW...ALONG 23N81W 25N86W 28N89W...IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 14N58W...ACROSS SAINT LUCIA IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 15N68W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA IN LINES OF CLOUDS FORMED BY CONFLUENT SURFACE WIND FLOW
ALONG 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W...14N70W 13N77W 11N83W...AND
FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 73W AND 81W. A GALE WIND EVENT IS 
OCCURRING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...BECAUSE OF FRESH TO STRONG 
TRADE WINDS...FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W FOR
NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS RANGING FROM 25 TO 35 KT...AND
SEAS FROM 10 TO 15 FT. THE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE
LESS THAN GALE FORCE IN 24 HOURS.
 
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT 
COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N39W TO 28N50W TO 27N60W...
DISSIPATING FROM 27N60W TO 28N74W. MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT EAST OF 50W. UPPER LEVEL 
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...MARKED BY THE MOVEMENT OF HIGH LEVEL 
CLOUDS...IS SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM 10N59W TO 21N40W TO 26N20W 
AND BEYOND COVERING MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE WESTERN SAHARA SOUTH 
OF MOROCCO. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ON TOP OF THE 
CANARY ISLANDS AND CONTINUES TO 23N30W 18N45W TO 15N58W...AND
CROSSING ON TOP OF SAINT LUCIA IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N14W THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE 
CANARY ISLANDS TO 26N18W.

$$
MT