000
AXNT20 KNHC 261745
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1645 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N12W 4N30W 0N48W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ FROM 13W-23W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ FROM 28W-38W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF IS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH NO GALES AND NO AREAS OF 
DEEP CONVECTION.  A SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF FLORIDA IS 
INDUCING SURFACE WINDS OF 20 KT OR LESS FROM THE EAST TO 
SOUTHEAST.  THESE WINDS SHOULD BE ENHANCED SOME DURING THE NEXT 
24 HOURS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD REACH 
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF BY EARLY SUNDAY.  IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...SUBSIDENT RIDGING IS PRESENT WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 
FROM 30-50 KT PREVAILING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SURFACE RIDGING ALONG 30N IN THE ATLANTIC IS HELPING TO PRODUCE 
BRISK EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY TRADEWINDS THIS MORNING.  A 1040 UTC 
QUIKSCAT PASS ALONG WITH SHIP REPORTS INDICATE THAT NORTH OF 
COLUMBIA THE WINDS ARE UP TO GALE FORCE.  THE TRADEWINDS MAY 
MODERATE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE BERMUDA HIGH 
WEAKENS TO THE NORTH...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT LEAST 20 KT 
THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN.  NO AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE 
OBSERVED TODAY UNDER THE TYPICALLY SUBSIDENT FLOW FOR THIS TIME 
OF YEAR.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING PREVAILS ALONG 75W WITH 
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UP TO 60 KT WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND 
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ABOUT THE SAME MAGNITUDE EAST OF THE AXIS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS 31-32N FROM THE GEORGIA 
COASTLINE EASTWARD TO 70W.  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LOW-TOPPED 
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURES...THOUGH NO 
DEEP CONVECTION IS BEING OBSERVED.  A SECOND COLD FRONT IS 
OBSERVED IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC FROM 32N19W TO 22N27W TO 20N39W 
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FARTHER WESTWARD TO 20N58W.  
WHILE NO DEEP CONVECTION IS SEEN TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE 
FEATURES...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING 
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT AND TROUGH.  A DISSIPATING 1028 MB 
HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 30N73W WITH RIDGING ALONG 30N WELL TO THE 
EAST OF THE HIGH.  NO GALES ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT IN THE 
REGION.  SURFACE WINDS ARE LIGHT NEAR THE SURFACE RIDGE...THOUGH 
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 25 KT ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF 25N 
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC.  THE COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC 
SHOULD CONTINUE PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD AND BRING SOME BRISK 
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS 
REGION DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THERE IS 
A TROUGH EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE 
AZORES TO 30N33W TO 25N41W TO 15N56W.  ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE 
OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THERE IS WIDESPREAD UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS 
ORIGINATING FROM THE ITCZ OUTFLOW WHICH IS ENHANCED BY RIGHT 
ENTRANCE REGION OF A SOUTHWESTERLY 130 KT JET.

$$
LANDSEA