000 AXNT20 KNHC 260514 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N13W 3N24W 4N45W 2N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 6N16W 6N23W TO 3N31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E US AND W ATLC DRAPING A STATIONARY FRONT FROM SOUTH CAROLINA TO E TEXAS NEAR HOUSTON GIVING THE N COAST PATCHES OF FOG INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST FROM APALACHICOLA BAY FLORIDA TO GALVESTON TEXAS. THE GULF WATERS REMAINS UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR NOTED S OF 28N. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE N/CENTRAL ATLC GIVES THE ENTIRE GULF RETURN FLOW WITH SCATTERED PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND WITHIN WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN IN THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE E OF 95W. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS TRANQUIL TONIGHT. NEXT MAJOR FRONT TO ENTER THE GULF IS EXPECTED LATE SAT/EARLY SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NNW ACROSS CUBA TO THE E COAST OF FLORIDA ALSO COVERING THE W ATLC WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALSO DOMINATING THE AREA. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS PRODUCING MODERATE/STRONG ELY TRADE WINDS AND COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 16N W OF 80W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT E MAINTAINING THE MODERATE/STRONG TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND DIMINISHING ON MON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING W TO OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 33N51W. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC TO 50W WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS CUBA ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA TO 30N80W. A COLD FRONT DRAPES ACROSS THE E ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N22W EXTENDING SW ALONG 24N28W 21N38W THEN W TO 22N53W. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM NW OF THE FRONT AND BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA N OF THE FRONT. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N31W S TO 26N33W THEN SW INTO THE TROPICS ALONG 21N47W TO JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 13N59W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE SE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH COUPLED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIED ALONG 33W TO INLAND OVER THE W AFRICA ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200/225 NM OF LINE FROM SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N52W TO 13N30W. MODERATE/STRONG ELY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. $$ WALLACE