000 AXNT20 KNHC 250544 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU DEC 25 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N23W 4N45W 3N53W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45/60 NM OF 5N FROM 28W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE E US SW TO OVER TEXAS CLIPPING THE NW GULF WITH THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT EXTENDING OVER LOUISIANA PULLING UP STATIONARY AS IT ENTERS THE GULF NEAR 30N93W RUNNING JUST OFF THE TEXAS COAST THEN INLAND NEAR BROWNSVILLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 28N W OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA AND W OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER TEXAS. THIS WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH BACK N AS THE COLD SECTION MOVES ACROSS THE N GULF COAST STATES WITH THE NEXT MAJOR FRONT TO CROSS THE GULF ENTERING LATE SAT. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND W ATLC WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR NOTED SW OF A LINE FROM THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA TO TAMPICO MEXICO. THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED WELL NE OF BERMUDA GIVES THE E GULF RETURN FLOW WITH PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER HIGH CENTERED IN THE W ATLC OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS GIVING THE ENTIRE BASIN ELY UPPER FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. HOWEVER...SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN USHERED IN ON MODERATE/STRONG ELY TRADE WINDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING MOST OF THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT N OF 18N W OF 80W WHERE RATHER CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL. THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT E MAINTAINING THE MODERATE/STRONG TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND DIMINISHING ON MON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT DRAPES ACROSS THE ATLC ENTERING THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N31W EXTENDING SW TO 25N50W BECOMING STATIONARY TO 24N73W WHERE THE REMNANTS REMAIN ACROSS THE N AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO NE FLORIDA. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM NW OF THE COLD FRONT WITH BROKEN/OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA N OF THE ENTIRE FRONT. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS COVERING THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN...E GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE W ATLC W OF 60W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 25N BETWEEN 25W-55W. A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 26N E OF 20W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA WITH A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N20W AND A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N16W TO 22N21W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 30N BETWEEN 13W AND THE FRONT. A WEAK UPPER SHEAR AXIS REMAINS IN THE TROPICS EXTENDING FROM 18N43W S TO 10N49W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS UPPER SHEAR AXIS COUPLED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIED ALONG 40W TO INLAND OVER THE W AFRICA ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM THE ITCZ NEAR 4N45W TO 10N38W AND DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 10N45W ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR MAURITANIA/SENEGAL BORDER. MODERATE/STRONG ELY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. $$ WALLACE