000 AXNT20 KNHC 241751 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED DEC 24 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 3N20W 3N35W 5N45W 4N55W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE ITCZ FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 38W-48W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS DIPS INTO TEXAS AND N MEXICO. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH DOMINATES MUCH OF THE GULF REGION. THESE WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE N GULF. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DOMINATING THE SE PORTION OF THE GULF. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ARE NOTED ACROSS SE MEXICO...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SE GULF. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE ANCHORED ON A HIGH OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 36N63W COVERS THE ENTIRE REGION PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. LOW TOPPED SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER AN E-SE FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED SFC HIGH. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE COAST OF TEXAS. THE STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC AND THE WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NORTH GULF WATERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... STRONG TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE BASIN COURTESY OF A 1039 MB HIGH LOCATED N OF AREA. A RECENT QSCAT PASS SHOWED GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN JUST SOUTH OF JAMAICA. IN ADDITION SHIP C6FN4 REPORTED 35 KT NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR BOTH AREAS. THIS HIGH IS SHIFTING EAST MAINTAINING THE STRONG TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALOFT...THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER HIGH CENTERED BETWEEN THE ABC ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE AREA WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE ALSO ENVELOPS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC. HOWEVER... SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE BASIN DOTTING MOST OF THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. SIMILAR CLOUDINESS IS ALSO NOTED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM WESTERN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA ALL THE WAY TO BELIZE...AND ACROSS THE MEXICAN RIVIERA INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 31N40W EXTENDING SW TO 26N56W. AT THIS POINT...THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE SE BAHAMAS WHERE IT DISSIPATES. A BAND OF MAINLY LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IS RELATED TO THE FRONT. BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE FOUND BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG SFC HIGH PRES...ANALYZED 1039 MB...NEAR 36N63W. MODERATE TO STRONG NE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE BLOWING JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ACROSS HISPANIOLA EXTENDS INTO THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE AZORES AND THE MADEIRA ISLANDS HAS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 20N30W TO 10N50W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 31N18W THEN CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 26N21W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE FRONT AFFECTING THE CANARY ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THIS UPPER LOW/TROUGH COUPLED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIED INLAND OVER WEST AFRICA IS ENHANCING CONVECTION N OF THE ITCZ. STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC THROUGH FRI. HAPPY HOLIDAYS/FELICES FIESTAS! $$ GR