000 AXNT20 KNHC 121734 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2008 ...CORRECTED PHRASING OF THE THIRD SENTENCE IN ATLANTIC OCEAN SECTION... TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 3N23W 3N34W 4N43W 7N54W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. THIS SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 13N55W TO 9N55W TO N SURINAME NEAR 6N56W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 270 NM E AND 90 NM W OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH TO THE S OF 9N. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 10W-14W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 26W-29W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS S OF 7N BETWEEN 41W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IS PRESENT ACROSS THE GULF REGION IN THE WAKE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC INTO THE W CARIBBEAN. THIS AIRMASS IS BEING REINFORCED BY A SECONDARY SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N81W TO 25N84W TO 23N89W. THE INCREASED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE VICINITY OF THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS SUPPORTING NORTHERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND E GULF. AS THE RELATIVELY COOL AIR IS ADVECTED OVER THE WARMER GULF WATERS...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS SE OF A LINE FROM THE COAST OF THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N85W TO 27N90W TO THE SE TEXAS COAST NEAR 26N97W. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE IN STRONG WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE GULF REGION. THIS SUBSIDENCE IS BEING ENHANCED OVER THE W GULF...WHERE A SURFACE RIDGE IS PRESENT. THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS BEING ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH IN SE TEXAS NEAR 30N98W. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE W CARIBBEAN. THIS COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N78W TO 16N81W TO CENTRAL COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THIS FRONT. TO THE W OF THIS COLD FRONT...A RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IS PRESENT. ALSO...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W TO 12N82W TO N GUATEMALA NEAR 17N91W. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER RIDGE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N BETWEEN 76W-80W...WHICH ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IN N COLOMBIA NEAR 8N74W. ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN REGION...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE PRESENT...WHERE DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ARE RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE W ATLC...AS A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS CONTINUES PROGRESSING EASTWARD. AT THE SAME TIME...AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH ENTERS THE W CARIBBEAN FROM THE W ATLC...EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N78W TO 28N76W TO 32N74W TO N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. INSTABILITY TO THE E OF THE COLD FRONT...AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT...ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH...LOCATED TO THE E OF THE COLD FRONT...THAT EXTENDS FROM 24N76W TO 29N74W TO 32N73W TO N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. TO THE W OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...A SECONDARY SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N78W TO 28N80W TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N81W. RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT TO THE W OF THESE COLD FRONTS. FARTHER TO THE E...SUBSIDENCE AROUND A 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 38N35W IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLC. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N53W... WITH ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LOW SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 45W-54W. ALSO...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM OVER THE E ATLC IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 36W-43W. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT. ALSO...A SURFACE TROUGH...EXTENDING FROM 13N55W TO 9N55W TO N SURINAME NEAR 6N56W...IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 270 NM E AND 90 NM W OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH TO THE S OF 9N. $$ COHEN