000 AXNT20 KNHC 121132 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 4N35W 6N53W. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 55W S OF 12N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 52W-57W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COMPLEX CYCLONE WITH MULTIPLE CENTERS IS ALONG THE MID-ATLC COAST OF THE CONUS AND CONTINUES TO MOVE NE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A LOW CENTER OVER WRN NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE W ATLC AND ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM CAPE CANAVERAL TO TAMPA AND INTO THE S/CENTRAL GULF NEAR 23N89W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS WITH THE BASE DIPPING TO NEAR 24N AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THIS FRONT. AREAS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE GULF E OF 95W DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER GULF WATERS. THICK LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BANKED UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS IN SE MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED ON A 1025 MB HIGH LOCATED OVER NE MEXICO IS ACROSS THE WRN GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 22N79W INTO ERN HONDURAS NEAR 16N84W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND RESIDE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE THE REST OF THE BASIN REMAINS ON THE SW SIDE OF A STRONG 1039 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ANCHORED W OF THE AZORES. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE USHERED IN ON MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO MOVE WWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS BANDS OF BROKEN SHALLOW SHOWERS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 67W-80W. THE UPPER LEVELS HOWEVER REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY WITH THE STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE LOCATED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN AND FAR NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER ERN PANAMA IN THE VICINITY OF A 1008 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 8N75W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER WRN COLOMBIA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING THIS ACTIVITY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STRONG SURFACE LOW COMPLEX IS SPINNING OVER THE MID-ATLC SEABOARD AND SUPPORTS A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS. THE MAIN COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 32N76W THEN CONTINUES S ACROSS ABACO AND ANDROS ISLANDS IN THE NW BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 24N OVER THE W ATLC. THE SECOND REINFORCING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA AND EXTENDS SW TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE W OF 76W. SUBSIDENCE AROUND A STRONG 1039 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED W OF THE AZORES IS GENERALLY SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N53W IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 44W-55W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE FARTHER TO THE SE OF THIS UPPER LOW IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 35W-44W. THIS SURFACE HIGH IS ALSO GENERATING A WIDE SWATH OF MODERATE TO STRONG ELY WINDS ACROSS THE OCEAN PARTICULARLY FROM 20N-32N BETWEEN 30W-60W. ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS...A MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT WITH A SMALL CORE OF 70-90KT JET-STREAM WINDS CROSSING N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 20N E OF 35W. $$ HUFFMAN