000
AXNT20 KNHC 111125
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU DEC 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 5N20W 6N40W 8N56W 7N60W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 21W-24W. 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 
47W-58W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1002 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER S ALABAMA NEAR 
32N86W. A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE 
YUCATAN CHANNEL ALONG 25N85W 20N86W MOVING E. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT 
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO W CUBA. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE W 
OF THE FRONT TO 95W WITH NORTHERLY 25-30 KT WINDS. TEMPERATURES 
ALONG THE TEXAS COAST ARE PREDOMINATELY IN THE LOW 30'S. IN 
CONTRAST WELL E OF THE FRONT...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER S 
FLORIDA WITH WARM SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE RETURN FLOW. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER S LOUISIANA 
NEAR 30N92W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 86W 
WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. 
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS...THE COLD FRONT TO BE OUT OF THE GULF OF 
MEXICO AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO HONDURAS WITH CONVECTION 
E OF THE FRONT. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 
20N86W TO EL SALVADOR NEAR 13N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
60 NM OF THE FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS 
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTS THE SEA ESPECIALLY E OF 82W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER COLOMBIA AND 
PANAMA FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 74W-82W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE 
COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 76W. UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE IS E OF THE COLD FRONT AND OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN 
S OF 12N BETWEEN 74W-86W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. EXPECT...THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE 1041 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 
41N38W PRODUCING MAINLY EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW FROM 10N-30N 
BETWEEN W AFRICA AND FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED 
WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 56W SOUTH OF 13N. LOW CLOUD CYCLONIC 
TURNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 
10N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 
60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC N 
OF 20N E OF 60W. ZONAL FLOW IS S OF 20N FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES 
TO W AFRICA. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO 
MOVE OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND EXTEND FROM 32N78W TO S FLORIDA IN 
24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION E OF THE FRONT AND GALE FORCE 
WINDS W OF THE FRONT. 

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FORMOSA