000
AXNT20 KNHC 110546
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU DEC 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N20W 6N40W 8N55W 7N60W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 19W-22W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A 1006 MB LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF ALABAMA 
NEAR 30N88W. A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 25N88W 18N91W MOVING E. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE 
FRONT FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. 
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE W OF THE FRONT WITH NORTHERLY GALE FORCE 
WINDS. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE TEXAS COAST ARE PREDOMINATELY IN 
THE 30'S. IN CONTRAST WELL E OF THE FRONT...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER 
IS OVER THE SE GULF WITH WARM SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE RETURN FLOW. 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. AN 
EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER SE TEXAS NEAR 30N94W. 
A RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 92W WHILE STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 
HOURS...THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO BELIZE WITH 
CONVECTION E OF THE FRONT. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE 
YUCATAN CHANNEL. SEE ABOVE. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH 
ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTS THE SEA ESPECIALLY E OF 80W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER COLOMBIA 
FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 73W-78W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA 
FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 79W-83W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE 
COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 80W. UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE IS E OF THE COLD FRONT AND OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN 
S OF 14N BETWEEN 75W-86W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. EXPECT... PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION OVER THE 
NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL CUBA W OF 80W AND N OF 13N IN 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
FROM 32N41W TO 31N44W. A LARGE 1042 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 42N39W PRODUCING MAINLY EASTERLY SURFACE 
FLOW FROM 10N-30N BETWEEN W AFRICA AND FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH 
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 55W SOUTH OF 13N. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED E OF THE TROUGH FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 
49W-54W. LOW CLOUD CYCLONIC TURNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 10N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS 
OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE 
CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 60W. ZONAL FLOW IS S OF 20N 
FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES TO W AFRICA. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT 
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO MOVE OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND EXTEND 
FROM 32N78W TO S FLORIDA IN 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION E 
OF THE FRONT AND GALE FORCE WINDS W OF THE FRONT. 

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FORMOSA