000
AXNT20 KNHC 101118
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED DEC 10 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 5N20W 5N30W 6N45W 5N52W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-7N BETWEEN 11W-14W... 
FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 19W-21W...AND FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 20W-25W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA 
ACROSS THE NW GULF OF MEXICO TO NW MEXICO ALONG 29N91W 24N98W 
24N104W MOVING SE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE 
COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 88W-91W. ELSEWHERE 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. 
NORTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS ARE W OF THE FRONT. MOSTLY FAIR 
WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH SOUTHEASTERLY 
SURFACE RETURN FLOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE 
W GULF W OF 90W WHILE A RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W. UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER TEXAS...OVER THE FRONT...AND OVER THE BAY 
OF CAMPECHE. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO BE OVER THE 
GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN 
EXTEND FROM N FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH CONVECTION. 
GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE W OF THE FRONT.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PATCHES 
OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTS THE SEA 
ESPECIALLY OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS OVER INLAND N COLOMBIA FROM 8N-9N BETWEEN 
76W-78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 
12N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER 
THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N65W PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC UPPER 
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS 
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 14N BETWEEN 73W-83W. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. EXPECT... 
PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO BELIZE IN 
24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 
32N41W TO 27N49W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM 
OF THE FRONT N OF 29N. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 
NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE TROPICS ALONG 14N52W 
8N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 
52W-55W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC 
BETWEEN 50W-80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N 
OF 10N E OF 50W WITH TROUGH AXIS ALONG 30W. EXPECT...THE COLD 
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. 

$$
FORMOSA