000
AXNT20 KNHC 100541
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED DEC 10 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 5N20W 6N45W 5N52W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 20W-24W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 20W-35W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LAKE CHARLES 
LOUISIANA ACROSS THE NW GULF OF MEXICO TO BEYOND BROWNSVILLE 
TEXAS MOVING SE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE 
FRONT. NORTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. MOSTLY 
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH 
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE RETURN FLOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL 
FLOW IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 
24 HOURS...A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE OVER THE W GULF. 
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE TO THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH CONVECTION. GALE 
TO STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE N OF THE FRONT. 
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PATCHES 
OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTS THE SEA 
ESPECIALLY OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS OVER LAKE MARACAIBO VENEZUELA FROM 9N-10N BETWEEN 
71W-73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 
11N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER 
THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N65W PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC UPPER 
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS 
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 14N BETWEEN 73W-83W. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. EXPECT... 
PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 
32N43W TO 26N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
FRONT N OF 28N. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE TROPICS ALONG 15N52W 
8N53W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 
50W-54W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC 
BETWEEN 50W-80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N 
OF 10N E OF 50W WITH TROUGH AXIS ALONG 30W. EXPECT...THE COLD 
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. 

$$
FORMOSA