000
AXNT20 KNHC 091118
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE DEC 09 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 6N40W 4N51W. CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 17W-20W 
...AND FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 22W-28W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF VIRGINIA IS PRODUCING 
RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. PATCHES OF 
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS DOTS THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHARP 
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 85W. SOME UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER TEXAS AND MEXICO W OF 98W WHILE STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT...A COLD FRONT TO 
ENTER THE FAR NW GULF WATERS THIS EVENING AND PRODUCE GALE FORCE 
NORTHERLY WINDS N OF THE FRONT.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PATCHES OF BROKEN 
LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTS THE SEA ESPECIALLY OVER 
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 76W-78W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER LAKE MARACAIBO VENEZUELA 
FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 71W-73W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
ALSO OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 81W-82W. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E 
CARIBBEAN NEAR THE ABC ISLANDS AT 12N66W PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC 
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-84W. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. EXPECT...MORE 
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N51W TO 
26N60W 25N65W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS 
NEAR 24N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 
1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 16N44W.  A SURFACE 
TROUGH IS IN THE TROPICS ALONG 15N49W 8N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 45W-48W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS 
...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC BETWEEN 45W-80W. A 70-90 KT 
UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO 32N57W. AN 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 45W WITH 
TROUGH AXIS ALONG 32W. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W 
ATLANTIC TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND EXTEND FROM 32N40W 
TO 24N63W WITH SHOWERS.  

$$
FORMOSA