000
AXNT20 KNHC 082346
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON DEC 08 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 4N30W 3N51W. CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-11N BETWEEN 16W-29W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ACROSS NE 
BRAZIL AND FRENCH GUIANA FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 50W-54W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND 
TRANSITIONS IN TO A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT FROM 21N90W NW TO NEAR 
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF HIGH 
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES STREAMING ACROSS THE NW GULF THIS EVENING 
AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN CONUS. 
DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO ELSEWHERE W OF 
90W AND ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OF 
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD ACROSS 
FLORIDA AND WRN CUBA. EXPECT THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE 
FAR NW GULF WATERS LATE TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW...MOSTLY SOUTHWESTERLY... 
COVERS THE ENTIRE BASIN. THE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO 
EXHIBIT THIS BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED NEAR 
12N66W ON TOP OF BROAD CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW. A STATIONARY FRONT 
ENTERS THE AREA FROM ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W TO THE NRN 
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N 
OF 20N BETWEEN 75W-82W. ALSO...CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND 
LINES OF SURFACE CONFLUENT FLOW...WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS...ARE 
FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 70W-86W...MAINLY IN THE SW CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE W ATLC 
WATERS N OF 24N AND W OF 55W...FROM A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT 
RESIDES ACROSS THE WRN ATLC NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS TROUGHING 
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N54W AND 
EXTENDS SW TO CENTRAL CUBA ALONG 29N60W 25N70W. A SURFACE TROUGH 
IS TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...ALONG 31N56W 25N65W 21N75W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE BOUNDARIES...MAINLY N 
OF 23N. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 30N31W 18N33W 
10N39W. THIS UPPER FEATURE SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 
21N34W TO 15N35W. POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 15N-27N 
BETWEEN 26W-34W. A WEAK 1018 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC 
NEAR 26N43W WITH NO SENSIBLE WEATHER. ANOTHER 1015 MB LOW IS 
FURTHER S NEAR 17N44W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 50W/51W 
FROM 9N-17N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 
9N-15N BETWEEN 47W-52W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE RUNS FROM 
THE VENEZUELA COAST NEAR 12N66W TO BEYOND 32N46W IN THE CENTRAL 
ATLC...SPREADING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE W ATLC BETWEEN 
40W-85W.

$$
HUFFMAN