000 AXNT20 KNHC 081747 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON DEC 08 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 10N15W 4N26W 3N38W 6N54W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 18W AND 22W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 10N EAST OF 48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W... GRAZING THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N90W. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO THE EXTREME NE CORNER OF MEXICO NEAR 26N98W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AHEAD OF THE TAIL END OF THE WARM FRONT. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF DUE TO RIDGING FROM A 1031 MB HIGH OVER VIRGINIA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT TROUGH...CURRENTLY PUSHING FROM SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO...IS MOVING ACROSS TEXAS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS...TOWARD THE SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF THE ADVANCING MOISTURE. THE FORECAST IS FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE FAR NW GULF WATERS LATE TUESDAY COMBINING WITH THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW...MOSTLY SOUTHWESTERLY... COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE GENERAL SENSE OF THE WEATHER PATTERN IS BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ON TOP OF BROAD CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW. A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE AREA FROM THE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N76W TO CENTRAL CUBA TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BETWEEN 85W AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND LINES OF SURFACE CONFLUENT FLOW...WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS...FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 67W...FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 69W AND 71W...WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 14N72W 12N77W TO PANAMA NEAR 9N82W...AND IN AN AREA BOUNDED BY THE NICARAGUA/PANAMA COAST NEAR 11N84W TO 20N76W TO 20N83W TO THE BELIZE COAST NEAR 18N88W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF 28N WEST OF 55W...FROM THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT NOW IS LIFTING OUT OF THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM E OF BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA ALONG 32N57W 26N66W 22N79W. A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS A REMNANT OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM AT LEAST A FEW DAYS AGO IS TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...ALONG 31N57W 25N64W 21N75W. A DEFAULT 1021 MB HIGH IS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 24N62W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 30N32W 17N34W 9N38W 5N50W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 35W/36W FROM 16N TO 23N. A 1018 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 26N41W...NOT GENERATING ANY HUGE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...AND FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK AND MOVE WEST ABOUT 10 KT. A 1015 MB LOW IS FURTHER S NEAR 18N43W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 41W AND 46W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 51W/52W FROM 10N TO 23N. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A FEW CELLS ARE FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 49W AND 51W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE RUNS FROM THE VENEZUELA COAST NEAR 10N66W BEYOND 32N46W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...SPREADING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE W ATLANTIC BETWEEN 40W-85W. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS EVERYWHERE WEST OF 40W. $$ CW/MT