000
AXNT20 KNHC 080528
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON DEC 08 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 3N30W AND INTO EXTREME NE 
BRAZIL NEAR 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N 
BETWEEN 11W-14W...AND FROM 4N-5N BETWEEN 26W-28W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-2N BETWEEN 27W-30W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA NEAR 23N80W TO THE CENTRAL GULF 
OF MEXICO NEAR 22N90W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO NE MEXICO 
NEAR 25N98W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS 
ARE ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 80W-82W. 
SIMILAR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE S OF THE FRONT OVER THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 91W-98W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS 
OVER THE N GULF DUE TO RIDGING FROM A 1027 MB HIGH OVER N 
GEORGIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHARP TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF 
WITH AXIS ALONG 93W. SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE S 
GULF S OF 25N WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE N GULF. 
EXPECT...THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SW 
RETURN FLOW. ALSO EXPECT THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE FAR NW 
GULF WATERS LATE TUESDAY. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PATCHES OF BROKEN 
LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COVERS THE SEA. A 1009 MB LOW 
IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 8N75W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 6N-11N 
BETWEEN 71W-76W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO ALONG THE 
COAST OF PANAMA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 80W-82W. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN N 
OF TRINIDAD PRODUCING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S 
OF 15N. EXPECT...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN 
CARIBBEAN S OF 15N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM JUST E OF BERMUDA 
TO W CUBA ALONG 32N64W 27N70W 23N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1015 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 25N46W. A TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 22N50W 
23N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 51W-57W. 
ANOTHER SMALL 1014 MB LOW IS FURTHER E NEAR 18N41W. A TROUGH 
EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 12N43W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
60 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W 
ATLANTIC BETWEEN 45W-80W. A 90 KT UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM EXTENDS 
FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO 30N57W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E 
ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 45W. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W 
ATLANTIC TO MOVE SE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND EXTEND FROM 
32N50W TO E CUBA WITH SHOWERS.  

$$
FORMOSA