000
AXNT20 KNHC 071734
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN DEC 07 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM LIBERIA NEAR 7N9W TO 4N20W 2N34W INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL NEAR 2N52W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED 
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 15W AND 25W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 
SOUTH AMERICA.
 
...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA...JUST SOUTH AND WEST 
OF THE HOMESTEAD AIR FORCE BASE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 
23N87W TO 23N92W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 23N92W TO 
THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 24N98W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN 
SUBSIDENCE IS ON TOP OF AND TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. BROKEN 
LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN A BAND ABOUT 90 NM ON EITHER 
SIDE OF 25N81W 23N90W 24N98W. A 1019 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS 
NEAR 20N95W. A TROUGH CURVES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 22N94W TO
22N92W JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
IN THE AREA FROM 23N BETWEEN 90W AND THE MEXICO COAST TO 22N90W 
21N93W TO 18N94W AT THE MEXICO COAST. FAIR SKIES ARE NORTH OF 
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS JUST SOUTH OF 
TRINIDAD OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 10N61W. 
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ON TOP OF THE AREA IS CUTTING 
APART THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CLOUDS FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 
59W AND 62W...AND THE REST OF THE PRECIPITATION CLOUDS THAT ARE 
ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THE GENERAL SENSE 
OF THE WEATHER PATTERN IS BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ON 
TOP OF BROAD CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW. CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW 
CLOUDS AND LINES OF SURFACE CONFLUENT FLOW...WITH POSSIBLE 
SHOWERS...ARE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 60W AND 72W...SOUTH OF 15N 
WEST OF 77W MOVING NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA/PANAMA...SOUTH OF 20N 
BETWEEN 79W AND 84W MOVING TOWARD HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...AND 
SOUTH OF 17N EAST OF 85W...TOWARD BELIZE AND THE GULF OF 
HONDURAS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS JUST 
OFF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES 
THROUGH 32N71W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W TO JUST SOUTH 
AND WEST OF THE HOMESTEAD AIR FORCE BASE...SOUTH OF MIAMI 
FLORIDA. A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS FROM AN ALREADY-
DISSIPATED FRONT IS ALONG 32N67W 27N70W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO 
21N77W ALONG THE CUBA COAST. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN 
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 40W. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N52W 25N57W TO DOMINICA IN THE 
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 
32N35W TO 13N36W TO 7N40W. A 1021 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
NEAR 33N34W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW CENTER TO 30N32W
TO A 1019 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 26N37W. SHOWERS AND 
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE 
OF THE TROUGH AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF LOW CENTER. A TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM A 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 25N46W TO 23N50W 
AND 24N55W. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM 
TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS 
OF THE LOW CENTER. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 41W/42W FROM 15N TO 
22N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS DIRECTLY WITH THE TROUGH FROM 14N 
TO 21N BETWEEN 40W AND 44W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED 
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH FROM 16N 
TO 23N BETWEEN 32W AND 40W.

$$
MT