000 AXNT20 KNHC 060552 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SAT DEC 06 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 5N10W 3N20W 6N40W 5N50W INTO FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 20W-33W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 37W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA NEAR 30N81W TO A 1018 MB LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N95W. A QUASI- STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES INTO MEXICO ALONG 20N96W 21N100W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NE GULF AND N FLORIDA FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 80W-88W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE W GULF W...MEXICO...AND S TEXAS FROM 18N-28N BETWEEN 92W-102W. IN ADDITION...STRONG N TO NE SURFACE WINDS ARE BLOWING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC RESULTING IN GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE EAST PACIFIC REGION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE SOUTHERN GULF. EXPECT...THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH SHOWERS IN 24 HOURS FROM 26N80W TO 20N96W. CARIBBEAN SEA... FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COVERS THE SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 15N81W 9N82W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N70W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 79W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA. EXPECT MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF 15N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1019 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N74W. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO N FLORIDA AT 30N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1022 HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N74W. A 1011 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N48W. A TROUGH IS SE OF THE LOW ALONG 27N44W 23N47W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 43W-47W. A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N17W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 50W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 16N BETWEEN 30W-50W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 27N25W. DIFFLUENCE E OF THE LOW IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 20N-25N. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 7N25W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W TO 7N60W. EXPECT...THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO DRIFT E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. $$ FORMOSA