000
AXNT20 KNHC 051159
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI DEC 05 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N11W TO 4N28W 6N49W TO FRENCH GUIANA AND 
SURINAME NEAR 5N56W. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 10N EAST OF 44W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT IS PUSHING THE CURRENT GULF OF 
MEXICO COLD FRONT HAS BECOME COMPARATIVELY STRETCHED OUT
AND NOT AS WELL DEFINED AS IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO...FROM NORTHEAST 
TO SOUTHWEST. THE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM GEORGIA TO LOUISIANA TO 
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
IS OBSERVED. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
TO 27N90W TO A 1020 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 22N96W...TO THE
MEXICO COAST NEAR 20N97W TO 25N104W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
FROM 25N104W NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND THE FAR WEST TEXAS. BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE NORTHWEST OF 30N82W 25N90W 
22N93W 19N94W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS SOUTHEAST 
OF 28N80W 23N90W 19N95W...SPILLING OVER INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN 
GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA. DRY AIR
IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AND 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CUTS THROUGH CENTRAL CUBA TO
20N84W TO 18N87W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM
14N81W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 10N82W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 10N WEST OF 80W.
IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF ANY OF THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
THAT WAS IN THE AREA WEST OF 80W SIX HOURS AGO HAS WEAKENED
AND/OR DISSIPATED FOR THE MOMENT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N55W TO 24N70W.
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 24N70W TO CENTRAL 
CUBA. A PERSISTENT CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC ENVELOPE IS 
THE MAIN FEATURE. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N48W. 
A TROUGH CURLS AROUND THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 23N50W.
A SEPARATE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 20N41W 14N46W 8N49W. THE DEEP 
LAYER SURFACE TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSES THROUGH 32N35W
TO 20N35W TO 12N44W AND 9N61W AT THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF 
VENEZUELA. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO 
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 44W 
AND 45W...AND FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 52W AND 61W.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 7N21W 20N23W BEYOND 32N25W.

$$
MT