000
AXNT20 KNHC 041150
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU DEC 04 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM 8N11W IN SIERRA LEONE TO 4N25W 7N43W TO 6N56W IN COASTAL 
SURINAME. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 5N
BETWEEN 11W AND 13W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED 
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 20W AND 34W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NEXT DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS DRIVING A COLD FRONT IS CHARGING 
EASTWARD...EXTENDING FROM NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO SOUTH TEXAS.
ITS COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER TEXAS COAST/LOUISIANA BORDER
INTO THE TEXAS GULF COAST WATERS TO SOUTH TEXAS...NORTHERN MEXICO...
CURVING TOWARD THE FAR WEST TEXAS. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM 
NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA 
TO EL SALVADOR. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 15 TO 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N97W 28N94W 30N91W. 
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS SOUTHEAST OF THE
LINE FROM THE WESTERNMOST POINT OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO MEXICO
GULF COAST NEAR 20N97W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE STATIONARY FRONT CUTS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO JUST NORTHWEST 
OF JAMAICA TO 16N81W. A WEAK SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS 
FROM 16N81W TO THE COAST OF PANAMA BETWEEN 80W AND ITS BORDER WITH 
COSTA RICA. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE 
PANAMA COAST TO 13N BETWEEN 79W AND 82W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
WIND FLOW COVERS THE THE ENTIRE AREA...THANKS TO THE UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE ALONG 25N57W 20N62W 16N64W INTO VENEZUELA NEAR 7N70W. THE 
TROUGH/TROPICAL WAVE NOW IS ALONG 76W SOUTH OF 16N...MOVING WEST
10 KT OR LESS. LOW CLOUDS ARE SOUTH OF 16N...MOVING CYCLONICALLY
AROUND THE AREA OF THE TROUGH.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE PERSISTENT DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N40W IN THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 20N45W TO 10N54W TO 8N60W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W...AND ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF 19N37W 14N43W 10N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE NORTH OF 
20N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W...AND FROM 22N TO 31N BETWEEN 39W AND 45W.
A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE 
CENTER NEAR 30N47W. THE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 30N47W TO 29N45W...
TO ANOTHER 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 25N45W TO 20N48W.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 25N57W...INTO THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N64W INTO VENEZUELA NEAR 7N70W. THE DEEP LAYER 
TROUGH THAT NOW IS POWERING THE COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT PASSES 
THROUGH 32N68W ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO 24N80W. MIDDLE TO 
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS WITHIN 400 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH. THE 
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W TO 30N62W 24N70W AND TO THE BAHAMAS 
NEAR 22N74W. THE FRONT CONTINUES AS STATIONARY FROM THE BAHAMAS 
BEYOND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE RIDGE IS 
ALONG 16N32W 24N26W BEYOND 32N23W. AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS 
ALONG 6N25W TO 16N25W TO 24N25W BEYOND 32N27W.

$$
MT