000 AXNT20 KNHC 032344 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST WED DEC 03 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED ALONG 7N12W 4N25W 6N43W 4N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM SOUTH OF AXIS BETWEEN 20W-30W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER SE LIBERIA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED NEAR 4N12W...AND 3N13W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW...AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO...DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF REGION. THESE WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO INTO TEXAS AND THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED OVER THE NW WATERS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE THE TEXAS COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE THU. SCATTERED TO BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING NWD AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO NEAR 13N82W. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS STILL INDICATED AN AREA OF 20-25 KT NLY WINDS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NEAR THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT PARTICULARLY S OF 13N AND W OF 82W. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS AFFECTING THE NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA COASTLINES. BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE W OF THE FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS NEAR THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA ALONG 73W/74W SOUTH OF 16N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 250 NM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO REACH THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NICARAGUA THU AFTERNOON KEEPING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS DOWN THERE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHES FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE SW TO COSTA RICA. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND IMPLIED DRY AIR MASS IS NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 70W...HOWEVER SOME LOW TOPPED SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS USHERED IN ON E-NE 15-20 KT TRADE WINDS. THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR REVEALS SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS PASSING ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. STRONG SWLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTH CENTRAL AMERICA...THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CUBA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 32N64W THEN CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 25N70W. AT THIS POINT...THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY CROSSING THE SE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA INTO DE CARIBBEAN SEA. A BAND OF MAINLY LOW/MID CLOUDS WITHIN 80 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT CONTAINS EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE WEAK ISOLATED TSTMS. A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS IS BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS HIGH ENVELOPS THE W ATLC...THE NW AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WEST-CENTRAL CUBA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE MAINLY EWD ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS WWD THROUGH THU. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLC TO BEYOND 32N56W. ASIDE FROM THE AREA NEAR THE FRONT MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE FORECAST REGION W OF 50W. LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 26N43W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 10N60W. A 90-110 KT NLY JETSTREAM IS W OF THE TROUGH FROM 30N44W TO 19N52W AND A 90-110 KT SLY JET IS E OF THE TROUGH FROM 15N44W TO 30N34W. AT THE SURFACE...A PAIR OF 1011 MB SFC LOWS ARE NEAR 26N45W AND 31N46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE SFC LOWS. TO THE EAST...A SFC TROUGH RUNS FROM 24N42W TO 10N44W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED ON HIGH SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 10N24W. $$ GR