000
AXNT20 KNHC 271124
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU NOV 27 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 7N20W 9N40W 8N60W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 20W-25W... 
FROM 6N-7N BETWEEN 30W-37W...AND FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 40W-45W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 
28N85W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. 5-10 KT 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED OVER THE GULF. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS NOTED WITH 70-90 KT OVER THE 
NORTHERN GULF. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N 
GULF N OF 27N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE 
GULF. EXPECT...THE SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 
27N81W IN 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT RETURN FLOW TO PRODUCE SHOWERS 
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1010 MB LOW REMAINS OVER PANAMA NEAR 10N78W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 77W-83W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FURTHER E OVER LAKE MARACAIBO 
VENEZUELA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 70W-72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
ALSO OVER HISPANIOLA...E CUBA...AND JAMAICA. FRESH TRADEWINDS 
ARE NOTED OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN 
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE REGION WITH AXIS ALONG 
60W. EXPECT... CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 15N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM NEAR 32N62W TO 27N64W 
TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N72W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF 
THE FRONT N OF 28N. A 1001 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 28N46W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS W TO A TRIPLE 
POINT AT 32N37W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO 
30N36W 24N40W 18N50W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE TRIPLE 
POINT TO 32N27W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS MOSTLY E OF THE COLD AND OCCLUDED FRONTS FROM 
26N-35N BETWEEN 31W-36W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS E OF THE FRONT 
ALONG 26N32W 15N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS MOSTLY E OF THE TROUGH FROM 19N-29N BETWEEN 
24W-35W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N 
OF 20N AND W OF 65W. A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 45W-65W. AN 
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N44W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 
23N-35N BETWEEN 30W-50W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
ATLANTIC. EXPECT... THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE E 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND DISSIPATE. ALSO EXPECT THE LOW OVER 
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS TO DRIFT E OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BE N AND W OF THE 
LOW CENTER. 

$$
FORMOSA