000
AXNT20 KNHC 261117
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED NOV 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 8N20W 6N30W 8N45W 6N57W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA 
FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 11W-14W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
4N-7N BETWEEN 32W-37W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA NEAR 30N89W 
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE 
TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO THE WESTERN 
GULF ALONG 26N80W 23N86W 23N93W 25N96W. A COOLER AND DRIER 
AIRMASS IS N OF THE FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF 
THE FRONT W OF 86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE AND MEXICO FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 94W-98W. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...THE BASE OF A TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH 
AXIS ALONG 90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT 
THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE TO THE NE GULF NEAR 29N84W IN 24 HOURS. 
ALSO EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO DISSIPATE OVER THE GULF.   

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS THE BROAD AREA OF 
LOW PRESSURE SURFACE LOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. LOW LEVEL 
CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN 75W-83W. MOST OF THE CONVECTION HOWEVER 
REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AS THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS W. LOCALIZED 
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN PANAMA AND 
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IS GENERATING 15-20 KT N TO NE WINDS 
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE 
REMAINDER OF THE SEA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE 
DOMINATES THE ENTIRE REGION WITH AXIS ALONG 70W. EXPECT... 
CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 
15N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 31N71W. ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. A 998 MB GALE 
LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N49W. AN 
OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS W TO A TRIPLE POINT AT 29N38W. A COLD 
FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO 26N37W 13N50W. A WARM 
FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO 27N27W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY E OF THE COLD AND 
OCCLUDED FRONTS FROM 18N-30N BETWEEN 32W-40W...AND FROM 30N-33N 
BETWEEN 36W-44W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W 
ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 75W. A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 
55W-75W. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N50W. 
CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 22N-38N BETWEEN 35W-55W. ZONAL FLOW IS 
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT... THE COLD FRONT 
OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND EXTEND 
FROM 31N61W TO E CUBA NEAR 21N75W. ALSO EXPECT THE DEEP 
LAYERED LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS TO DRIFT E OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BE N AND W OF THE LOW 
CENTER.     

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FORMOSA