000
AXNT20 KNHC 260519
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED NOV 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N12W 6N30W 7N50W 5N58W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 
6N-8N BETWEEN 12W-15W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 15W-50W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA NEAR 30N93W 
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE 
TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO THE WESTERN 
GULF ALONG 27N80W 24N90W 24N95W. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IS N 
OF THE FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT W 
OF 90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND 
MEXICO FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 94W-100W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE 
BASE OF A TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT THE SURFACE 
HIGH TO MOVE TO THE NE GULF NEAR 29N84W IN 24 HOURS...AND ALSO 
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO DISSIPATE OVER THE GULF.   

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO BE THE 
1009 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR 11N83W. 
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW ALONG WITH UPPER 
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRODUCING WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 7N-15N 
BETWEEN 73W-84W. MOST OF THE CONVECTION HOWEVER REMAINS POORLY 
ORGANIZED AS THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS W. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS 
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS SURFACE LOW AND A 
SURFACE RIDGE N OF AREA IS GENERATING 15-20 KT N TO NE WINDS 
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE 
REMAINDER OF THE SEA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE 
DOMINATES THE ENTIRE REGION WITH AXIS ALONG 70W. EXPECT... 
CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 
15N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 31N73W. ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 29N. A 1000 MB STORM 
LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N51W. AN 
OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS W TO A TRIPLE POINT AT 28N41W. A COLD 
FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO 25N41W 16N47W. A WARM 
FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO 27N27W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY E OF THE COLD AND 
OCCLUDED FRONTS FROM 18N-32N BETWEEN 35W-40W...AND FROM 31N-33N 
BETWEEN 40W-44W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W 
ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 75W. A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 
55W-75W. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N50W. 
CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 22N-38N BETWEEN 35W-55W. ZONAL FLOW IS 
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT... THE COLD FRONT 
OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND EXTEND 
FROM 31N61W TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W. ALSO EXPECT THE DEEP 
LAYERED LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS TO DRIFT E OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BE N AND W OF THE LOW.     

$$
FORMOSA