000 AXNT20 KNHC 252345 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N12W 6N40W 4N53W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR 5N33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF AND AT 2100 UTC EXTENDS FROM FORT PIERCE FLORIDA TO CHARLOTTE HARBOR SW TO NEAR 25N90W TO 25N94W. SUPPORTING THIS FRONT IS A DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH THAT REMAINS OVER THE ERN CONUS EXTENDING A TROUGH AXIS INTO THE GULF REGION FROM NRN FLORIDA TO THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND DRIER REINFORCING AIRMASS RESIDES...SUPPORTED BY A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER ERN TEXAS NEAR 30N95W. MAINLY LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 70 NM OF THE FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER ERN MEXICO NEAR CIUDAD VALLES. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED BANKING ALONG THE ERN COAST OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FROM 18N-26N W OF 95W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THAT AREA. CARIBBEAN SEA... MAIN WEATHER FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS NEAR 11N83W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS SURFACE LOW ALONG WITH AN UPPER RIDGE PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 17N AND W OF 72W. MOST OF THE CONVECTION HOWEVER REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. AS THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS WWD...IT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING OVER A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS SURFACE LOW AND A RIDGE N OF AREA IS GENERATING N TO NE SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT FOR LOCATIONS IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE REGION WITH AXIS FROM TRINIDAD TO PUERTO RICO AND WEAKER RIDGING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND ERN CUBA. THIS IS INDUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA WHICH ARE UNDER E-NE SURFACE FLOW. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE ERN CONUS WITH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE W ATLC. THIS UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N75W AND EXTENDS SW TO FORT PIERCE FLORIDA. A COOLER AND DRIER REINFORCING AIRMASS FOLLOWS BEHIND THE FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST...A SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N49W. THIS UPPER LOW AND TROUGH SUPPORT A 998 MB SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR 31N50W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW ALONG 28N47W TO 24N47W TO 20N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 38W-45W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT LOCATED EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS AIDING IN THE ENHANCEMENT OF THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...A SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 19N48W TO 11N51W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 39W-47W. A WEAKENING 1011 MB LOW IS NEAR 27N31W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 28N34W THROUGH THE LOW TO 26N26W. IT IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 24W-27W. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED N OF THE AZORES AND EXTENDS A RIDGE THROUGH THE CANARY ISLANDS S-SW TO OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. $$ HUFFMAN