000 AXNT20 KNHC 251126 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N13W 6N22W 4N33W 4N40W 3N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 22W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY AND WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS IN THE BASE OF A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS COVER THE GULF REGION...WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE GULF REGION. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE N AND W GULF THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W TO 27N93W TO NE MEXICO NEAR 25N98W. ALSO...A SURFACE TROUGH IS AROUND 60 NM TO THE E OF THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND 93W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N E OF 93W. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE SW QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...A REINFORCING COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IS IN PLACE. THIS AIRMASS IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER TEXAS NEAR 31N101W. DURING THE NEXT DAY...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF REGION. ADDITIONALLY...SUBSIDENCE IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE W FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N82W. OVER THE S GULF...CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG N TO NE SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BLOW THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC RESULTING IN GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION BEGINNING AT 25/1500 UTC. CARIBBEAN SEA... IN THE SW CARIBBEAN...A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N82W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS SURFACE LOW IS SUPPORTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS S OF 16N W OF 75W. ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. AS THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...IT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND EASTERN HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE INCREASED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW IS SUPPORTING N TO NE SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT FOR LOCATIONS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-15N W OF 75W. THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW IS BEING ENHANCED BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE VICINITY OF AN UPPER RIDGE PRESENT OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...WITH THE AXIS OF THIS UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM N COLOMBIA NEAR 12N72W TO 18N82W TO THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N85W. OVER THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS COMBINING WITH DEEP MOISTURE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N BETWEEN 63W-71W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE W ATLC...WITH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE W ATLC. ALSO... A SURFACE TROUGH E OF THE COAST OF THE SE CONUS EXTENDS FROM 28N79W TO 30N78W TO 32N77W TO N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH. THE DEEP TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE SE CONUS ACROSS THE N GULF. THIS COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE W ATLC DURING THE NEXT DAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...A REINFORCING COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IS IN PLACE. FARTHER E...THE AXIS OF A SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 26N48W TO 32N55W TO NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH A 100 KT CYCLONICALLY-CURVED UPPER LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH. DEEP AND STRONG ASCENT ORIGINATING FROM STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THIS JET IS PROVIDING THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR A 1002 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 32N51W. THE CORRESPONDING STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THIS SURFACE LOW IS RESULTING IN GALE FORCE SURFACE WINDS WITHIN 300 NM OF THE S SEMICIRCLE OF THE SURFACE LOW. ALSO...A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM 32N51W TO 25N49W TO 20N52W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS SURFACE LOW AND SURFACE COLD FRONT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 41W-54W...WHICH ARE BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED CENTRAL ATLC UPPER LEVEL JET. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N59W TO A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 11N57W TO 14N51W...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH. OVER THE E ATLC...AN UPPER TROUGH IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 28W-36W...WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 35N34W. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N37W TO A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 26N32W TO 24N30W TO 22N33W. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH...AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 25W-34W. $$ COHEN