000 AXNT20 KNHC 242349 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON NOV 24 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN ALONG 75W S OF 16N MOVING SLOWLY WWD. THIS WAVE IS BEING ABSORBED INTO THE OVERALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A 1008 MB LOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER NRN COLOMBIA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 73W-76W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 9N13W 5N26W 6N42W 5N53W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 38W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW GULF NEAR CAMERON LOUISIANA AND EXTENDS SW TO INLAND OVER S TEXAS NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED E OF THE COLD FRONT FROM NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA TO NEAR 26N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE WRN AND N/CENTRAL GULF WATERS N OF 25N BETWEEN 87W-95W. A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW GULF FROM 23N96W TO 19N94W WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS S OF 23N AND W OF 95W. ACROSS THE ERN GULF...A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ACROSS THE BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER THE ERN GULF AND NRN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ALOFT...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WRN CARIBBEAN INTO THE SE GULF WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES ACROSS THE GULF STREAMING AMPLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE N OF 25N AND E OF 92W. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N82W CREATING A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC SURFACE CIRCULATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN CARIBBEAN. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS SURFACE LOW AND A RIDGE N OF AREA IS SUPPORTING N TO NE SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT E OF 70W...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND BETWEEN 72W-80W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE FROM 5N-16N BETWEEN 77W-85W. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE VICINITY OF AN UPPER RIDGE PRESENT OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN. THE AXIS OF THIS UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NRN COLOMBIA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS ALONG 67W AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE ABC ISLANDS IN THE SE CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 64W-69W. A BAND OF TRANSVERSE HIGH CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM JAMAICA ACROSS HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE N TROPICAL ATLC. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... OVER THE W ATLC...A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 36N69W. THIS HIGH ENVELOPES THE W ATLC BETWEEN 61W-76W...THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA COAST AND EXTENDS ALONG 79W FROM 26N TO BEYOND 32N. LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 70 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF 57W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 57W IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHWARD. THIS UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N52W TO A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 30N52W WHERE A COLD FRONT CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 25N55W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 24N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 46W-50W. ANOTHER 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS NEAR 27N30W AND FORECAST TO MOVE NW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AREA OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IS EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW COVERING THE AREA N OF 23N BETWEEN 24W-30W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. IN THE TROPICS...A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS NEAR 13N56W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. THE REMAINDER OVER THE E ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED N OF THE AZORES. A JET STREAM BRANCH OF 70-90 KT IS ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND CONTINUES E-NE OVER W AFRICA WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 120 KT. $$ HUFFMAN