000 AXNT20 KNHC 232353 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 73W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE IS QUICKLY BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LOCATED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED N OF PANAMA NEAR 9N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 70W-75W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 7N21W 9N29W 6N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 24W-34W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 40W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 34N80W WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO TO INLAND OVER ERN MEXICO. RESIDUAL BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE GULF W OF 93W. LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF E OF 93W WHILE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS ACROSS THE WRN GULF W OF 93W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 93W-97W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...50-70 KT ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINING S OF A LINE FROM 27N81W TO 20N97W MAINLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE SE GULF. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER TEXAS AND THE NW GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO ENTER THE GULF MON AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...SEE ABOVE. THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER ERN CUBA ALONG 21N76W TO 21N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 80 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1008 MB LOW IS N OF PANAMA NEAR 9N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 8N-16N BETWEEN 75W-84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA N OF 17N AND E OF 70W USHERED IN ON 15-20 KT NORTHEAST WINDS. A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING 25-30 KT WINDS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE LOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS FROM TRINIDAD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED ACROSS THE BASIN IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN IN PLACE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1032 MB HIGH IS INLAND OVER SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 34N80W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE W ATLC NEAR 32N54W AND EXTENDING TO NEAR 25N60W ACROSS THE CAICOS ISLANDS AND ERN CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 26N AND FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 65W-78W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NW OF THE FRONT TO 77W. A 1014 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 23N60W AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NWD AND BECOME ABSORBED BY THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N31W SW TO 19N40W WITH A 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 22N35W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NE OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 22N-29N BETWEEN 26W-31W. ANOTHER 1009 MB LOW IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N55W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM 15N47W THROUGH THE LOW CENTER TO SAINT LUCIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...OVERALL WEAK TROUGHING IS ACROSS THE ENTIRE ATLC BASIN WITH ONE TROUGH AXIS ALONG 65W SUPPORTING THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT AND ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS ALONG 33W SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE E ATLC NEAR 30N35W. $$ HUFFMAN