000 AXNT20 KNHC 231742 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 70W/71W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH AN INVERTED-V PATTERN IN CLOUD COVERAGE...WHERE WAVETRAK PRODUCT INDICATES A MAXIMUM IN LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. ADDITIONALLY...A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COINCIDES WITH THIS WAVE BASED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 16N. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 7N22W 9N28W 8N40W 6N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 13W-19W...AND FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 24W-36W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 42W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 34N80W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. RESIDUAL BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE GULF N OF 22N. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF. RETURN FLOW IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE W GULF W OF 93W. ALSO WINDS CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE E PACIFIC. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...50-70 KT ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...THE SE GULF...AND FLORIDA. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER TEXAS AND THE NW GULF. EXPECT...RETURN FLOW TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE W GULF W OF 87W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION OVER E TEXAS AND LOUISIANA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER CUBA ALONG 21N76W 21N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1007 MB LOW IS N OF PANAMA NEAR 9N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 76W-83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA N OF 15N AND E OF 75W. A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING 25-30 KT WINDS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ...A RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS FROM TRINIDAD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT...THE FRONT OVER CUBA TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 15N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1034 MB HIGH IS INLAND OVER SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 34N80W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC TO THE BAHAMAS ALONG 32N55W 26N60W 22N70W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO E CUBA NEAR 21N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NW OF THE FRONT TO 80W. A 1015 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 23N59W. A 1013 MB LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 22N35W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE CENTER FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 27W-30W. ANOTHER 1011 MB LOW IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 14N54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 50W-60W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS N OF 20N AND W OF 50W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N39W. A TROUGH IS N OF 20N AND E OF 50W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICS S OF 20N AND E OF 50W. $$ FORMOSA