000
AXNT20 KNHC 222352
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 66W/67W S OF 18N 
MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT 
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS 
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 67W-72W. 

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N13W 7N18W 7N44W 4N51W. A LARGE 
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 
5N-12N BETWEEN 14W-27W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM S OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 33W-38W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WRN TIP OF 
CUBA TO 23N90W IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND THEN SW INTO THE WRN BAY 
OF CAMPECHE AND INLAND ACROSS MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE 
TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE FAR WRN GULF FROM 22N96W TO BROWNSVILLE 
TEXAS. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER THE AREA 
ACROSS DEEP S TEXAS AND NE MEXICO FROM 22N-29N BETWEEN 95W-99W. 
EARLIER SHIP OBSERVATIONS REPORTED GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE 
YUCATAN CHANNEL NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND ARE EXPECTED 
TO SUBSIDE BY LATE SAT. BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE 
NOTED N OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS 
ACROSS THE NRN GULF WATERS ANCHORED ON A 1036 MB HIGH OVER SOUTH 
CAROLINA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...70-90 KT ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE 
GULF OF MEXICO WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR NOTED E OF 94W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN...SEE ABOVE. A 1009 MB 
LOW IS ACROSS WRN PANAMA NEAR 9N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 
76W-84W...INCLUDING INLAND ERN NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA AND 
PANAMA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS ERN CUBA AND TURNS 
STATIONARY ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INTO THE S/CENTRAL 
GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED SE OF THIS FRONT 
USHERED IN ON 20-25 KT NE WINDS ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN FROM 
18N-21N BETWEEN 66W-76W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE COVERS 
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS FROM NRN GUYANA ACROSS NRN 
VENEZUELA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE IS NOTED S OF 16N WITH THE UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN IN 
PLACE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1036 MB HIGH IS INLAND OVER SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 34N82W AND 
EXTENDS SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE W ATLC BEHIND A COLD FRONT 
THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N59W AND TRAILS SW 
THROUGH THE CROOKED ISLAND PASSAGE TO WRN CUBA NEAR 22N80W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. 
OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NW OF THE FRONT TO 
80W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N57W TO A 1016 MB LOW NEAR 
27N58W TO 22N60W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS E OF THE TROUGH FROM 
23N-32N BETWEEN 51W-57W. FARTHER EAST...A 1014 MB LOW IS OVER 
THE E ATLC NEAR 22N34W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 
17N37W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 27W-34W. 
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS 
FROM 15N50W TO 16N58W. ISOLATED SHALLOW SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM 
OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW IS N OF 
20N AND W OF 52W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLC 
NEAR 30N32W AND EXTENDS TROUGHING N OF 10N AND E OF 40W.

$$
HUFFMAN