000 AXNT20 KNHC 221733 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 65W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. CIMSS WAVETRAK PRODUCT INDICATES A MAXIMUM IN LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE VICINITY OF THIS WAVE. ADDITIONALLY... THERE IS MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON THE CIMSS PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 66W-70W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N13W 7N20W 7N45W 3N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 10W-30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 30W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA NEAR 22N80W TO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N92W AND CONTINUES AS A WARM FRONT TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTS. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER S TEXAS AND NE MEXICO FROM 18N-28N BETWEEN 95W-100W. 15-2O KT E WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. 10-15 KT SE WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED N OF THE FRONTS. STRONG SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE E PACIFIC. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...70-90 KT ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...THE FRONTS IN THE GULF TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT RETURN FLOW TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE W GULF W OF 92W...S TEXAS...AND NE MEXICO...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. A 1009 MB LOW IS N OF PANAMA NEAR 10N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 76W-84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA N OF 15N AND E OF 75W. A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING 25-30 KT WINDS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ...A RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS FROM TRINIDAD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS S OF 16N. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT OVER CUBA TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 15N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1038 MB HIGH IS INLAND OVER SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 34N682W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC TO W CUBA ALONG 32N62W 26N70W 22N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. OVERCAST LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NW OF THE FRONT TO 80W. A 1016 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N58W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 20N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 51W-58W. ANOTHER 1014 MB LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 23N33W. A TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THIS LOW TO 19N38W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 25W-33W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS N OF 20N AND W OF 40W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N28W. A TROUGH IS N OF 20N AND E OF 40W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICS S OF 20N AND E OF 50W. $$ FORMOSA